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Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World

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  • Alan J Auerbach
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Abstract

Although theoretical models consistently predict that government spending shocks should lead to appreciation of the domestic currency, empirical studies have regularly found depreciation. Using daily data on U.S. defense spending (announced and actual payments), the paper documents that the dollar immediately and strongly appreciates after announcements about future government spending. In contrast, actual payments lead to no discernible effect on the exchange rate. It examines the responses of other variables at the daily frequency and explores how the response of the exchange rate to fiscal shocks varies over the business cycle as well as at the zero lower bound and in normal times.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 177-215, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:64:y:2016:i:1:p:177-215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2016. "Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement," IMF Working Papers 16/60, International Monetary Fund.
    2. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:411-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2016. "Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-97.
    4. repec:eee:inecon:v:116:y:2019:i:c:p:144-157 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
    6. Isai Quispe, 2017. "Fiscal Shocks and International Production Networks: An Empirical Investigation," IHEID Working Papers 20-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. repec:eee:jmacro:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:71-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shirota, Toyoichiro, 2018. "Evaluating the Unconventional Monetary Policy in Stock Markets : A Semi-parametric Approach," Discussion paper series. A 322, Graduate School of Economics and Business Administration, Hokkaido University.
    9. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    10. Natoli, Filippo & Metelli, Luca, 2018. "The international transmission of US fiscal shocks," MPRA Paper 84207, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus and Fiscal Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 23789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lewis, Vivien & Winkler, Roland, 2015. "Fiscal policy and business formation in open economies," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 603-620.
    13. Alesina, Alberto F & Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2019. "Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-based Approaches," CEPR Discussion Papers 13565, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2017. "Fiscal multipliers in Japan," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 411-421.
    15. repec:eaa:aeinde:v:19:y:2019:i:1_3 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2019. "Can government demand stimulate private investment? Evidence from U.S. federal procurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7534, CESifo Group Munich.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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