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Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Ferrara
  • Luca Metelli
  • Filippo Natoli
  • Daniele Siena

Abstract

The paper re-investigates the effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and inflation, using US data. In opposition to some previous puzzling results, we find that an increase in government spending appreciates the real exchange rate and generates inflationary pressures. Positive spending shocks also induce a trade balance deficit and an increase in the nominal interest rate. The discrepancy with the existing literature lies in the identification of fiscal shocks: embedding a narrative instrument within a proxy-SVAR model is what makes the difference. Findings are robust and coherent with a standard open economy business cycle model. Our analysis suggests that proxy-SVAR models are more immune to structural changes in US fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," CAMA Working Papers 2021-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-38
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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