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Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy

  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

For a large number of OECD countries we estimate the cross-country spillover effects of government purchases on output. Following the methodology in Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012a, b), we allow these multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and use real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. Our findings suggest that cross-country spillovers have an important impact. The findings also confirm those of our earlier papers--namely that fiscal shocks have a larger impact when the affected country is in recession.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 103 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 141-46

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:103:y:2013:i:3:p:141-46
Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.3.141
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  1. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
  2. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2012. "Estimating the Effects of Coordinated Fiscal Actions in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3912, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2011. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era : Fixed, Floating, and Flaky," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 652-72, September.
  5. Robert Barro, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects from Government Purchases and Taxes," Annual Meeting Plenary 2011-1, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  7. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 16311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Working Papers 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2009. "Cross-border spillovers from fiscal stimulus," CEPR Discussion Papers 7535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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