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The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Francesco D'Ascanio
  • Gernot Müller
  • Johannes Pfeifer

Abstract

Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers output but does not alter the real exchange rate. A spending increase appreciates the exchange rate but does not alter output unless there is economic slack. We establish these results in a small open economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and provide empirical evidence on the basis of quarterly time-series data for 38 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Francesco D'Ascanio & Gernot Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2019. "The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 7922, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7922
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7922.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Austerity, Growth and Inflation. Remarks on the Eurozone's Unresolved Competitiveness Problem," CESifo Working Paper Series 4086, CESifo Group Munich.
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    5. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    6. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2018. "Downward nominal wage rigidity and state-dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-26.
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    8. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2008. "Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 362-383, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    downward nominal wage rigidity; government spending shocks; exchange rate peg; real exchange rate; output; non-linear effects; asymmetric adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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