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The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Born
  • Francesco D'Ascanio
  • Gernot Müller
  • Johannes Pfeifer

Abstract

Under fixed exchange rates, fiscal policy is an effective tool. According to classical views because it impacts the real exchange rate, according to Keynesian views because it impacts output. Both views have merit because the effects of government spending are asymmetric. A spending cut lowers output but does not alter the real exchange rate. A spending increase appreciates the exchange rate but does not alter output unless there is economic slack. We establish these results in a small open economy model with downward nominal wage rigidity and provide empirical evidence on the basis of quarterly time-series data for 38 countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Born & Francesco D'Ascanio & Gernot Müller & Johannes Pfeifer, 2019. "The Worst of Both Worlds: Fiscal Policy and Fixed Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 7922, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7922
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
    3. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Benatti, Nicola & Groiss, Martin & Kelly, Petra & Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, 2024. "Environmental regulation and productivity growth in the euro area: Testing the porter hypothesis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Lukasz Wiktor Olejnik, 2023. "Economic growth and military expenditure in the countries on NATOʼs Eastern flank in 1999–2021," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 May 2023.
    7. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Naser Yenus Nuru & Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher, 2021. "The impacts of public expenditure innovations on real exchange rate volatility in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-72, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Wataru Hirata & Toshitaka Maruyama & Tomohide Mineyama, 2020. "Flattening of the Wage Phillips Curve and Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity: The Japanese Experience in the 2010s," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 20-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    10. Dr. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    11. Ricardo Duque Gabriel & Mathias Klein & Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2023. "The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1397-1427.
    12. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    13. Olejnik, Łukasz Wiktor, 2023. "Short-run multiplier effects of military expenditures in NATO's Eastern Flank countries in 1999–2021," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1344-1355.
    14. Mamondi Victor Daniel & Oviedo Jorge & De la Rosa Adolfo, 2023. "El-Déficit-Fiscal-Deteriora-el-Tipo-de-Cambio-Real.-Evidencias-por-medio-de-un-modelo-de-EGDE-para-Argentina," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4666, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    15. HSING, Yu, 2021. "Are The Predictions Of The Mundell-Fleming Model Applicable To Argentina?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(1), pages 37-48.
    16. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. Kohler, Wilhelm & Müller, Gernot J. & Wellmann, Susanne, 2023. "Risk sharing in currency unions: The migration channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Ramona Tiganasu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Dan Lupu, 2022. "Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 667-698, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    downward nominal wage rigidity; government spending shocks; exchange rate peg; real exchange rate; output; non-linear effects; asymmetric adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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