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Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks

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  • Cimadomo, Jacopo
  • Callegari, Giovanni
  • Ricco, Giovanni

Abstract

We investigate the effects of fiscal policy communication on the propagation of government spending shocks. To this aim, we propose a new index measuring the coordination effects of policy communication on private agents' expectations. This index is based on the disagreement amongst US professional forecasters about future government spending. The underlying intuition is that a clear fiscal policy communication can coalesce expectations, reducing disagreement. Results indicate that, in times of low disagreement, the output response to fiscal spending innovations is positive and large, mainly due to private investment response. Conversely, periods of elevated disagreement are characterised by muted output response. JEL Classification: E60, D80

Suggested Citation

  • Cimadomo, Jacopo & Callegari, Giovanni & Ricco, Giovanni, 2016. "Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Working Paper Series 1964, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161964
    Note: 352854
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    Cited by:

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    3. Jan Philipp Fritsche & Mathias Klein & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1901, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Stephen M. Miller & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "US Fiscal Policy and Asset Prices: The Role of Partisan Conflict," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 851-862, December.
    5. Giovanni Pellegrino, 2020. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in the US: A Journey into Non-Linear Territory," Economics Working Papers 2020-05, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Goodness C. Aye, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity in South Africa: An Asymmetric Analysis," Working Papers 201922, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Luna, Paulo Henrique, 2018. "Discretionary fiscal policy and disagreement in expectations about fiscal variables empirical evidence from Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 100-116.
    9. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
    10. Carlos Mauro Cárdenas Cardona & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2020. "La comunicación fiscal y sus efectos sobre los retornos de los títulos públicos: una aproximación empírica para el caso colombiano," Ensayos de Economía 018309, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    11. Goemans, Pascal, 2020. "Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224642, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Goemans, Pascal, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 826, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Silvia Miranda Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Identification with external instruments in structural VARs under partial invertibility," Sciences Po publications 24, Sciences Po.
    14. Goemans, Pascal & Belke, Ansgar, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Daniela Fantozzi & Alessio Muscarnera, 2021. "A News-based Policy Index for Italy: Expectations and Fiscal Policy," CEIS Research Paper 509, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Mar 2021.
    16. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    17. Kim, Wongi, 2019. "Government spending policy uncertainty and economic activity: US time series evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Nicolay, Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca & Acar, Tatiana, 2019. "Do fiscal communication and clarity of fiscal announcements affect public debt uncertainty? Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 38-60.
    19. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2019. "Identification with External Instruments in Structural VARs under Partial Invertibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1213, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    disagreement; fiscal transmission mechanism; government spending shock;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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