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Government Purchases Reloaded : Informational Insufficiency and Heterogeneity in Fiscal VARs

Author

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  • Ellahie, Atif

    (David Eccles School of Business, University of Utah)

  • Ricco, Giovanni

    (Department of Economics, The University of Warwick)

Abstract

Using a large Bayesian VAR, we approximate the flow of information received by economic agents to investigate the effects of changes to government purchases. We document robust evidence that informational insufficiency in conventional models explains inconsistent results across samples and commonly employed identifications in recursive Structural VARs and Expectational VARs. Furthermore, we report heterogeneous effects of components of government purchases. While aggregate government purchases do not appear to produce strong stimulative effects with output multiplier around 0.7, government investment components have multipliers well above unity. State and local consumption, which captures investment in education and health, elicits a strong response.

Suggested Citation

  • Ellahie, Atif & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "Government Purchases Reloaded : Informational Insufficiency and Heterogeneity in Fiscal VARs," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1138, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:1138
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    3. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
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    8. Hardik A. Marfatia & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2019. "125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets," Working Papers 201956, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Ilori, Ayobami E. & Paez-Farrell, Juan & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2022. "Fiscal policy shocks and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Thomas Gemert & Lenard Lieb & Tania Treibich, 2022. "Local fiscal multipliers of different government spending categories," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2551-2575, November.
    11. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    12. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2018. "Machine Learning Macroeconometrics A Primer," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 22666, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
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    14. Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis," Papers 2207.03988, arXiv.org.
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    17. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal shocks ; government purchases ; fiscal foresight ; Large Bayesian; VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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