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Floats, pegs and the transmission of fiscal policy

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  • Giancarlo Corsetti
  • Keith Kuester
  • Gernot J. Muller

Abstract

According to conventional wisdom, fiscal policy is more effective under a fixed than under a flexible exchange rate regime. In this paper the authors reconsider the transmission of shocks to government spending across these regimes within a standard New Keynesian model of a small open economy. Because of the stronger emphasis on intertemporal optimization, the New Keynesian framework requires a precise specification of fiscal and monetary policies, and their interaction, at both short and long horizons. The authors derive an analytical characterization of the transmission mechanism of expansionary spending policies under a peg, showing that the long-term real interest rate always rises in response to an increase in government spending if inflation rises initially. This response drives down private demand even though short-term real rates fall. As this need not be the case under floating exchange rates, the conventional wisdom needs to be qualified. Under plausible medium-term fiscal policies, government spending is not necessarily less expansionary under floating exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Muller, 2011. "Floats, pegs and the transmission of fiscal policy," Working Papers 11-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:11-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    2. Groll, Dominik & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2020. "The inherent benefit of monetary unions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 63-79.
    3. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B, 2016. "Exchange rate flexibility under the zero lower bound," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 52-69.
    4. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2016. "Government spending shocks in open economy VARs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 68-84.
    5. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    6. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2013. "Roads to Prosperity or Bridges to Nowhere? Theory and Evidence on the Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 89-142.
    7. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio & Ricardo Mourinho Félix, 2013. "Fiscal multipliers in a small euro area economy: How big can they get in crisis times?," Working Papers w201311, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Luiz de Mello, 2013. "What Can Fiscal Policy Do in the Current Recession? A Review of Recent Literature and Policy Options," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 113-139, March.
    10. Ganelli, Giovanni & Rankin, Neil, 2020. "Fiscal deficits as a source of boom and bust under a common currency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Ekaterina Pyltsyna, 2018. "The Change Of Fiscal Multiplier When Switching From Managed Exchange Rate Regime To Thefloating One," HSE Working papers WP BRP 206/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    12. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2013. "Government Spending Shocks, Sovereign Risk and the Exchange Rate Regime," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-212/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2013.
    13. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2016. "Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 42-66.
    14. Jesper Lindé, 2018. "DSGE models: still useful in policy analysis?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(1-2), pages 269-286.
    15. Marie-Pierre Hory, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in Emerging Market Economies: Can we learn something from Advanced Economies?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 59-84.
    16. Farhi, E. & Werning, I., 2016. "Fiscal Multipliers☆☆We thank the editors John Taylor and Harald Uhlig for detailed comments, as well as suggestions and comments by Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Jon Steinsson, and Michael Weber," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2417-2492, Elsevier.
    17. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2013. "Government Spending Shocks, Sovereign Risk and the Exchange Rate Regime," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-212/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2013.
    18. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolf, Martin, 2019. "Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Ma, Yong, 2016. "Nonlinear monetary policy and macroeconomic stabilization in emerging market economies: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 461-480.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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