Understanding the dynamic effects of government spending on foreign trade

Using Vector Autoregressions on U.S. time series, the present paper documents the effects of fiscal policy on foreign trade: an increase in government spending significantly depreciates the nominal exchange rate, appreciates the terms of trade and increases net exports. Exposed to the same spending shock, a New Keynesian general equilibrium model is shown to match qualitatively the response of relative prices. The response of net exports, in contrast, depends on the intra- and intertemporal elasticities of substitution and the degree of home bias in private spending. An accommodating monetary policy dampens, but does not alter the response of net exports.