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Floats, pegs and the transmission of fiscal policy

  • Corsetti, Giancarlo
  • Kuester, Keith
  • Müller, Gernot

According to conventional wisdom, fiscal policy is more effective under a fixed than under a flexible exchange rate regime. In this paper we reconsider the transmission of shocks to government spending across these regimes within a standard new-Keynesian model of a small open economy. Because of the stronger emphasis on intertemporal optimization, the new-Keynesian framework requires a precise specification of fiscal and monetary policies, and their interaction, at both short and long horizons. We derive an analytical characterization of the transmission mechanism of expansionary spending policies under a peg, showing that the long-term real interest rate necessarily rises if inflation rises on impact, in response to an increase in government spending. This drives down private demand even though short-term real rates fall. As this need not be the case under floating exchange rates, the conventional wisdom needs to be qualified. Under plausible medium-term fiscal policies, government spending is not necessarily less expansionary under floating exchange rates.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8180.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8180
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  1. Gernot Müller & Giancarlo Corsetti & Andre Meier, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," IMF Working Papers 09/106, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 41-45, May.
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  16. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in the Open Economy: Effects on Welfare and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 3279, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Buiter, Willem H. & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo, 1996. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," CEPR Discussion Papers 1466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
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  21. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "What Determines Government Spending Multipliers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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