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Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs

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  • Dake Li

    (Princeton University)

  • Mikkel Plagborg-Møller

    (Princeton University)

  • Christian K. Wolf

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

We conduct a simulation study of Local Projection (LP) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimators of structural impulse responses across thousands of data generating processes (DGPs), designed to mimic the properties of the universe of U.S. macroeconomic data. Our analysis considers various structural identification schemes and several variants of LP and VAR estimators, and we pay particular attention to the role of the researcher’s loss function. A clear bias-variance trade-off emerges: Because our DGPs are not exactly finite-order VAR models, LPs have lower bias than VAR estimators; however, the variance of LPs is substantially higher than that of VARs at intermediate or long horizons. Unless researchers are overwhelmingly concerned with bias, shrinkage via Bayesian VARs or penalized LPs is attractive.

Suggested Citation

  • Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Working Papers 2021-55, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:econom:2021-55
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    File URL: https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/lp_var_simul.pdf
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    1. Local Projections vs. VARs
      by Francis Diebold in No Hesitations on 2021-04-05 13:24:00

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    3. Bruns, Martin & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2022. "Comparison of local projection estimators for proxy vector autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
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    11. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens, 2022. "Dynamic Identification Using System Projections on Instrumental Variables," Working Papers 2204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 06 Oct 2023.
    12. Tomás Opazo, 2023. "The Heterogeneous Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence for US Households," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 992, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9678, CESifo.
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    20. Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2023. "Evaluating policy institutions -150 years of US monetary policy-," Economics Working Papers 1873, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    21. James Cloyne & Joseba Martinez & Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes in a World of Ideas," Working Papers 970, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    external instrument; impulse response function; local projection; proxy variable; structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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