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Identification with External Instruments in Structual VARs under partial invertibility

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

    (Bank of England and CFM)

  • Giovanni Ricco

    (University of Warwick and OFCE & Sciences Po Paris)

Abstract

This paper discusses the conditions for identification with external instruments in Structural VARs under partial invertibility. We observe that in this case the shocks of interest and their effects can be recovered using an external instrument, provided that a condition of limited lag exogeneity holds.This condition is weaker than that required for LP-IV, and allows for recoverability of impact efects also under VAR misspecification. We assess our claims in a simulated environment and provide an empirical application to the relevant cas of identification of monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Identification with External Instruments in Structual VARs under partial invertibility," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2018-24, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
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    6. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers 1711, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Feb 2017.
    7. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    11. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2018. "Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models," Working Papers No 13/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    13. Dario Caldara & Edward Herbst, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 157-192, January.
    14. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    15. Braun, Phillip A. & Mittnik, Stefan, 1993. "Misspecifications in vector autoregressions and their effects on impulse responses and variance decompositions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 319-341, October.
    16. Carlo Altavilla & Luca Brugnolini & Refet S. Gürkaynak & Roberto Motto & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2019. "Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7699, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Sinem Hacioglu Hoke & Kristina Bluwstein, 2018. "When Creativity Strikes: News Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations," Discussion Papers 1823, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of political risk shocks," Bank of England working papers 841, Bank of England.
    3. Martínez-Hernández, Catalina, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of multidimensional monetary policy on inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2020/18, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Leonardo N. Ferreira, 2020. "Forward Guidance Matters: disentangling monetary policy shocks," Working Papers Series 530, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Ettmeier, Stephanie & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2019. "Same, but different? Testing monetary policy shock measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    6. Andrea Giovanni Gazzani & Alejandro Vicondoa, 2019. "Proxy-SVAR as a Bridge for Identification with Higher Frequency Data," 2019 Meeting Papers 855, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Adam Brzezinski & Yao Chen & Nuno Palma & Felix Ward, 2019. "The real effects of money supply shocks: Evidence from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1906, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    8. Fabio Canova & Filippo Ferroni, 2018. "Mind the gap! Stylized dynamic facts and structural models," Working Papers No 13/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    9. Mirela Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 280730188, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Mirela S. Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 894, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Identification with external instruments; Structural VAR; Invertibility; Monetary Policy Shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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