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Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks

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  • Taylor, Alan M.
  • Cloyne, James
  • Hürtgen, Patrick

Abstract

Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998. German monetary policy shocks produce conventional effects on the German domestic economy: activity, prices, and credit decline significantly following a monetary contraction. But given Germany’s central role in the European Monetary System (EMS), we can also shed light on debates about the international transmission of monetary policy and the relative importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve for the global cycle during these years. We find that Bundesbank policy spillovers were much stronger in major EMS economies with Deutschmark pegs than in non-EMS economies with floating exchange rates. Furthermore, compared to monetary spillovers from the U.S., German spillovers were comparable or even larger in magnitude for both pegs and floats.

Suggested Citation

  • Taylor, Alan M. & Cloyne, James & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2022. "Global Monetary and Financial Spillovers: Evidence from a New Measure of Bundesbank Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 17587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17587
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    2. Tobias Broer & John V. Kramer & Kurt Mitman, 2025. "The Distributional Effects of Oil Shocks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(3), pages 851-889, September.
    3. Guillaume Bazot & Eric Monnet & Matthias Morys, 2024. "Central banks and the absorption of international shocks (1891-2019)," Working Papers halshs-04778323, HAL.
    4. Boge, Kevin Patrick & Rieth, Malte & Kholodilin, Konstantin, 2024. "The unequal impacts of monetary policies on regional housing markets," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302370, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Gefang, Deborah & Hall, Stephen G. & Tavlas, George S. & Wang, Yongli, 2025. "Does one size fit all? The country-specific effects of ECB monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    6. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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