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Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data

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  • Hack, Lukas

    (University of Mannheim)

  • Rostam-Afschar, Davud

    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract

How do firms’ plans and expectations respond to macroeconomic shocks? We run a daily survey of German firms over the past three years. We randomize daily invitations, delivering a stable composition of firms. This allows constructing daily time series and estimating dynamic aggregate causal effects. These estimates capture firms’ responsiveness conditional on the recent economic environment, making them informative for policymakers. We examine oil supply, monetary policy, and forward guidance shocks, finding that firms’ plans, especially price-setting plans, respond within days to oil supply and monetary policy shocks but not to forward guidance. Finally, we investigate firm heterogeneity and expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hack, Lukas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2025. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," IZA Discussion Papers 17882, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17882
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Dovern & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "The Causal Effects of Trump's Reelection on Business Expectations of German Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 12266, CESifo.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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