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Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data

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  • Lukas Hack

  • Davud Rostam-Afschar

Abstract

How do firms respond to macroeconomic shocks? To study this question, we construct novel daily time series that measure firms’ plans and expectations based on surveys from Germany. Daily variation allows us to estimate the short-run aggregate responses of firms in short samples. This allows us to analyze the post-pandemic inflation surge without relying on pre-pandemic data. We find that firms’ plans, notably price-setting plans, respond within days to oil supply and monetary policy shocks but not to forward guidance shocks. The effects are especially strong for small and non-tradeable sector firms. Finally, expectations respond strongly and swiftly, but only to monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_593, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_593
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gaul, Johannes J. & Keusch, Florian & Rostam-Afschar, Davud & Simon, Thomas, 2024. "Invitation Messages for Business Surveys: A Multi-Armed Bandit Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 17534, IZA Network @ LISER.
    3. Jonas Dovern & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2025. "The Causal Effects of Trump's Reelection on Business Expectations of German Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 12266, CESifo.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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