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House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data

Author

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  • Gorea, Denis
  • Kryvtsov, Oleksiy
  • Kudlyak, Marianna

Abstract

Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. We exploit information contained in listings for the residential properties for sale in the United States between 2001 and 2019 from the CoreLogic Multiple Listing Service Dataset. Using high-frequency measures of monetary policy shocks, we document that a one-standard-deviation contractionary monetary policy surprise lowers housing list prices by 0.2-0.3 percent within two weeks—a magnitude on par with the effect on stock prices. House prices respond stronger to the surprises to future rates as compared to the surprise changes in the federal funds rate. Sale prices are mostly pre-determined by list prices and do not independently respond to monetary policy surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gorea, Denis & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 17595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17595
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. William D. Larson, 2022. "Effects of Mortgage Interest Rates on House Price Appreciation: The Role of Payment Constraints," FHFA Staff Working Papers 22-04, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    3. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    4. Valeska Fresquet Kohan & John Mondragon & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2025. "Pandemic-Era Demand Squeezed Housing Inventories," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2025(01), pages 1-6, January.
    5. Lukas Hack & Davud Rostam-Afschar, 2025. "Which Macroeconomic News Matters for Price-Setting?," CESifo Working Paper Series 12215, CESifo.
    6. Hack, Lukas & Rostam-Afschar, Davud, 2024. "Understanding Firm Dynamics with Daily Data," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302376, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Daniel R. Ringo, 2024. "Inframarginal Borrowers and the Mortgage Payment Channel of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Rodrigo Guimaraes & Gabor Pinter & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    9. Martin Groiss & Nicolas Syrichas, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0058, Berlin School of Economics.
    10. Daniel R. Ringo, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. George Dotsis & Panagiotis Petris & Dimitris Psychoyios, 2025. "Assessing Housing Market Crashes over the Past 150 years," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 359-377, February.
    12. Denis Gorea & Augustus Kmetz & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak & Mitchell Ochse, 2023. "House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(09), pages 1-5, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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