IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/95884.html

House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises

Author

Listed:
  • Denis Gorea

  • Augustus Kmetz
  • Oleksiy Kryvtsov
  • Marianna Kudlyak
  • Mitchell Ochse

Abstract

New evidence based on listings of homes for sale from 2000 to 2019 suggests house prices adjust to monetary policy changes over weeks rather than years, faster than previously thought. Housing list prices fall within two weeks after the Federal Reserve announces an unexpected policy tightening, similar to responses of other financial assets. House prices respond more strongly to unexpected changes in long-term interest rates than to surprises in the short-term federal funds rate. Changes in mortgage rates following Fed announcements are key to explaining this rapid house price reaction.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Gorea & Augustus Kmetz & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak & Mitchell Ochse, 2023. "House Prices Respond Promptly to Monetary Policy Surprises," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(09), pages 1-5, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:95884
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2023-09.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gorea, Denis & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2022. "House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 17595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Augustus Kmetz & Schuyler Louie & John Mondragon, 2023. "Where Is Shelter Inflation Headed?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(19), pages 1-6, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024. "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers 2024-002, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research.
    2. Martin Groiss & Nicolas Syrichas, 2025. "Monetary Policy, Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0058, Berlin School of Economics.
    3. Daniel R. Ringo, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Rodrigo Guimaraes & Gabor Pinter & Jean-Charles Wijnandts, 2023. "The liquidity state-dependence of monetary policy transmission," Bank of England working papers 1045, Bank of England.
    5. Elenev, Vadim & Law, Tzuo-Hann & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2024. "Fearing the Fed: How wall street reads main street," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Alexandra Piller & Marc Schranz & Larissa Schwaller, 2025. "Using Natural Language Processing to Identify Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Papers 25.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    7. Lael Brainard, 2017. "Cross-Border Spillovers of Balance Sheet Normalization : a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Monetary Economics Summer Institute, New York, New York, July 13, 2017," Speech 964, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Gelfer, Sacha & Gibbs, Christopher G., 2023. "Measuring the effects of large-scale asset purchases: The role of international financial markets and the financial accelerator," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Effects of the Lender of Last Resort," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1654-1693.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy, 2023. "Risk, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices in a Global World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Michael D. Bauer & Eric T. Swanson, 2023. "An Alternative Explanation for the "Fed Information Effect"," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 664-700, March.
    12. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Vasudevan, Vittal, 2025. "Macroeconomic Expectations in a War," IZA Discussion Papers 18017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Francesco Casalena, 2024. "Back to normal? Assessing the Effects of the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Tightening," IHEID Working Papers 14-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Ambiguous Policy Announcements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(5), pages 2356-2398.
    15. Rostagno, Massimo & Altavilla, Carlo & Carboni, Giacomo & Lemke, Wolfgang & Motto, Roberto & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2025. "An options-based impact study of the negative interest rate policy and forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    16. Jiang, Shifu, 2024. "The effect of monetary policies on inflation: A fiscal perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    17. Anaya Longaric, Pablo & Cera, Katharina & Georgiadis, Georgios & Kaufmann, Christoph, 2025. "From Brussels to Bangkok: how investment funds transmit financial spillovers," Working Paper Series 3131, European Central Bank.
    18. Vedolin, Andrea & Leombroni, Matteo & , & Whelan, Paul, 2018. "Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 12970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Shang, Fei, 2022. "The effect of uncertainty on the sensitivity of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:95884. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.