IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/112601.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Central bank swap lines: evidence on the effects of the lender of last resort

Author

Listed:
  • Bahaj, Saleem
  • Reis, Ricardo

Abstract

Theory predicts that central-bank lending programs put ceilings on private domestic lending rates, reduce ex post financing risk, and encourage ex ante investment. This article shows that with global banks and integrated financial markets, but domestic central banks, then lending of last resort can be achieved using swap lines. Through them, a source central bank provides source-currency credit to recipient-country banks using the recipient central bank as the monitor and as the bearer of the credit risk. In theory, the swap lines should put a ceiling on deviations from covered interest parity, lower average ex post bank borrowing costs, and increase ex ante inflows from recipient-country banks into privately issued assets denominated in the source-country’s currency. Empirically, these three predictions are tested using variation in the terms of the swap line over time, variation in the central banks that have access to the swap line, variation in the days of the week in which the swap line is open, variation in the exposure of different securities to foreign investment, and variation in banks’ exposure to dollar funding risk. The evidence suggests that the international lender of last resort is very effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahaj, Saleem & Reis, Ricardo, 2022. "Central bank swap lines: evidence on the effects of the lender of last resort," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112601, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112601
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/112601/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    2. Robert N McCauley & Catherine R Schenk, 2020. "Central bank swaps then and now: swaps and dollar liquidity in the 1960s," BIS Working Papers 851, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey & Maxime Sauzet, 2019. "The International Monetary and Financial System," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 859-893, August.
    6. Abadie, Alberto & Imbens, Guido W., 2011. "Bias-Corrected Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11.
    7. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    8. Marek Jarociński & Peter Karadi, 2020. "Deconstructing Monetary Policy Surprises—The Role of Information Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 1-43, April.
    9. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-486, May.
    10. Fiorella De Fiore & Marie Hoerova & Ciaran Rogers & Harald Uhlig, 2018. "Money Markets, Collateral and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 25319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Linda S. Goldberg & Craig Kennedy & Jason Miu, 2011. "Central bank dollar swap lines and overseas dollar funding costs," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 3-20.
    12. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    13. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "Interpreting deviations from covered interest parity during the financial market turmoil of 2007-08," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1953-1962, November.
    14. Barry Eichengreen & Domenico Lombardi & Anton Malkin, 2018. "Multilayered Governance and the International Financial Architecture: The Erosion of Multilateralism in International Liquidity Provision," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 9(S1), pages 7-20, June.
    15. William Poole, 1968. "Commercial Bank Reserve Management In A Stochastic Model: Implications For Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(5), pages 769-791, December.
    16. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 326-340.
    17. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    18. Marek Jarocinski & Peter Karadi, 2017. "Central Bank Information Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1193, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Moessner, Richhild & Allen, William A., 2013. "Central bank swap line effectiveness during the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 167-178.
    20. Holmström, Bengt, 2013. "Inside and Outside Liquidity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262518536, December.
    21. Victoria Ivashina & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 2015. "Dollar Funding and the Lending Behavior of Global Banks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(3), pages 1241-1281.
    22. Claudio Borio & Robert Neil McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "Covered interest parity lost: understanding the cross-currency basis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Horn & Bradley C. Parks & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "China as an International Lender of Last Resort," NBER Working Papers 31105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cenedese, Gino & Della Corte, Pasquale & Wang, Tianyu, 2019. "Currency mispricing and dealer balance sheets," Bank of England working papers 779, Bank of England.
    3. Koyama, Kentaro & Takeda, Sumihiro, 2023. "Currency basis term structure, cross-border investment flow, and central bank currency swap agreement," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 470-482.
    4. Christopher Clayton & Amanda Dos Santos & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2022. "Internationalizing Like China," NBER Working Papers 30336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    6. Marco Garofalo & Giovanni Rosso & Roger Vicquéry, 2024. "Dominant Currency Pricing Transition," Economics Series Working Papers 1044, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael David Bordo, 2021. "Monetary Policy Cooperation/Coordination and Global Financial Crises in Historical Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 587-611, July.
    8. Yu, Ziliang & Liu, Xiaomeng & Liu, Zhuqing & Li, Yang, 2023. "Central bank swap arrangements and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta, 2023. "Priorities for the G20 Finance Track," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 17(1-2), pages 7-58, February.
    10. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2023. "International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 1-34, March.
    11. Mathis L Richtmann & Lea Steininger, 2023. "From bazooka to backstop: the political economy of standing swap facilities," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 47(4), pages 681-702.
    12. Tao Liu & Dong Lu & Liang Wang, 2023. "Hegemony or Harmony? A Unified Framework for the International Monetary System," Working Papers 202305, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Central Bank Swap Lines," Discussion Papers 1816, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Koyama, Kentaro & Takeda, Sumihiro, 2023. "Currency basis term structure, cross-border investment flow, and central bank currency swap agreement," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 470-482.
    3. Patrick Augustin & Mikhail Chernov & Lukas Schmid & Dongho Song, 2020. "The Term Structure of Covered Interest Rate Parity Violations," NBER Working Papers 27231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Syrstad, Olav & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh, 2022. "Price-setting in the foreign exchange swap market: Evidence from order flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 119-142.
    5. Shang, Fei, 2022. "The effect of uncertainty on the sensitivity of the yield curve to monetary policy surprises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Refet Gürkaynak & Hati̇ce Gökçe Karasoy‐Can & Sang Seok Lee, 2022. "Stock Market's Assessment of Monetary Policy Transmission: The Cash Flow Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(4), pages 2375-2421, August.
    7. Boeck, Maximilian & Feldkircher, Martin, 2021. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 887-901.
    8. Lu, Dong & Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi, 2023. "China's monetary policy surprises and corporate real investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
    10. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary Tightening, Inflation Drivers and Financial Stress," Working Paper Series 2023-38, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Daniel J. Lewis & Christos Makridis & Karel Mertens, 2019. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations?," Working Papers 1906, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 17 Jan 2020.
    12. Müller, Gernot & Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Global Risk and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 16245, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    14. Frederic Boissay & Fabrice Collard & Cristina Manea & Adam Shapiro, 2023. "Monetary tightening, inflation drivers and financial stress," BIS Working Papers 1155, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Leonardo Nogueira Ferreira, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited," Working Papers Series 573, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    16. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Stéphane Lhuissier & Urszula Szczerbowicz, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Debt Structure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 497-515, June.
    18. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2024. "Is There an Information Channel of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2084, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Christoph E. Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2020. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," Working Papers 677, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    20. Fanelli, Luca & Marsi, Antonio, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and unconventional monetary policy in the Euro area: A tale of three shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    liquidity facilities; currency basis; bond portfolio flows; 682288; OUP deal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:112601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.