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Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks

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  • Philippe Bacchetta
  • J. Scott Davis
  • Eric Van Wincoop

Abstract

Global non-U.S. banks have significant dollar exposure both on and off their balance sheet. We develop a model to analyze their adjustment to dollar funding shocks, whether from reduced direct lending or external dollar shortages. The model provides insight into banks’ responses through borrowing, lending and FX swap positions, as well as the impact on their net worth, their probability of default and CIP deviations. Implications of the model are confronted with data on the response of non-U.S. global banks to major dollar funding shocks. We examine the benefits from buffering these shocks through central bank dollar swap lines or local currency lending by the central bank.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe Bacchetta & J. Scott Davis & Eric Van Wincoop, 2025. "Dollar Funding Fragility and Non-U.S. Global Banks," Working Papers 2531, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:101523
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2531
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2012. "The Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 155-178, June.
    2. Pēteris Kloks & Patrick McGuire & Angelo Ranaldo & Vladyslav Sushko, 2023. "Bank positions in FX swaps: insights from CLS," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    3. Lorena Keller, 2024. "Arbitraging Covered Interest Rate Parity Deviations and Bank Lending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(9), pages 2633-2667, September.
    4. Tomoyuki Iida & Takeshi Kimura & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Deviations from Covered Interest Rate Parity and the Dollar Funding of Global Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 275-325, September.
    5. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Effects of the Lender of Last Resort," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(4), pages 1654-1693.
    6. Patrick McGuire & Goetz von Peter, 2009. "The US dollar shortage in global banking," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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