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Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements During the Global Financial Crisis

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  • Rose, Andrew K
  • Spiegel, Mark

Abstract

While the global financial crisis was centered in the United States, it led to a surprising appreciation in the dollar, suggesting global dollar illiquidity. In response, the Federal Reserve partnered with other central banks to inject dollars into the international financial system. Empirical studies of the success of these efforts have yielded mixed results, in part because their timing is likely to be endogenous. In this paper, we examine the cross-sectional impact of these interventions. Theory consistent with dollar appreciation in the crisis suggests that their impact should be greater for countries that have greater exposure to the United States through trade and financial channels, less transparent holdings of dollar assets, and greater illiquidity difficulties. We examine these predictions for observed cross-sectional changes in CDS spreads, using a new proxy for innovations in perceived changes in sovereign risk based upon Google-search data. We find robust evidence that auctions of dollar assets by foreign central banks disproportionately benefited countries that were more exposed to the United States through either trade linkages or asset exposure. We obtain weaker results for differences in asset transparency or illiquidity. However, several of the important announcements concerning the international swap programs disproportionately benefited countries exhibiting greater asset opaqueness.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2011. "Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements During the Global Financial Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 8557, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8557
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    Cited by:

    1. Christine Brown & Viet Do & Oscar Trevarthen, 2017. "Liquidity shock management: Lessons from Australian banks," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 42(4), pages 637-652, November.
    2. Du, Wenti, 2018. "Who carried more credibility?: An analysis of the market responses to news from the Japanese government, the Japanese central bank and international credit rating agencies," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 32-39.
    3. Kalin I Tintchev, 2013. "Connected to Whom? International Interbank Borrowing During the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 13/14, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Wee Chian Koh & M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. Nagle & Franziska L. Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Debt and Financial Crises," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2001, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    5. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    6. Galina Hale & Peter Jones & Mark M. Spiegel, 2014. "Home currency issuance in global debt markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Acharya, Viral V. & Fleming, Michael J. & Hrung, Warren B. & Sarkar, Asani, 2017. "Dealer financial conditions and lender-of-last-resort facilities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 81-107.
    8. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2012. "Central Bank Swaps And International Dollar Illiquidity," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-20.
    9. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Bahaj, Saleem & Reis, Ricardo, 2018. "Central bank swap lines," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90374, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Hao, Lin-Na & Tao, Ran, 2020. "The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    12. Saleem Bahaj & Ricardo Reis, 2019. "Central Bank Swap Lines: Evidence on the Effects of the Lender of Last Resort," IMES Discussion Paper Series 19-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Paweł Smaga, 2013. "Wpływ Europejskiej Rady Ryzyka Systemowego na stabilność finansową w UE," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 5-35.
    14. D. Essers & E. Vincent, 2017. "The global financial safety net :In need of repair ?," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 87-112, september.
    15. Kristin J. Forbes, 2011. "Global imbalances and global liquidity - commentary," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 345-345.
    16. González-Fernández, Marcos & González-Velasco, Carmen, 2020. "A sentiment index to measure sovereign risk using Google data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 406-418.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dollar; exchange rate; Federal Reserve; financial crisis; illiquidity; swap; TAF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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