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Crisis "Shock Factors" and the Cross-Section of Global Equity Returns

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  • Charles W. Calomiris
  • Inessa Love
  • Maria Soledad Martinez Peria

Abstract

We study stock returns over the period of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and identify three crisis "shock factors" related to unique features of the crisis: (1) the collapse of global demand, (2) the contraction of credit supply, and (3) selling pressure on firms' equity. All three of these "shock factors" are reflected in large and statistically significant influences on residual equity returns during the crisis period (after controlling for normal risk factors that are associated with expected returns). Similar analysis for the placebo period of August 2005-December 2006 shows that the influences identified during the 2007-2008 sample period are unique to the crisis. A month-by-month analysis shows that the time variation of the importance of each of the shock factors tracks related changes in the global economic environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles W. Calomiris & Inessa Love & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2010. "Crisis "Shock Factors" and the Cross-Section of Global Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 16559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16559
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.
    2. Bekaert, Geert & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Mehl, Arnaud, 2011. "Global crises and equity market contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 8438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lilian Ng & Fei Wu & Jing Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2016. "Foreign Investor Heterogeneity and Stock Liquidity around the World," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(5), pages 1867-1910.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
    5. Kristin Forbes, 2012. "The "Big C": Identifying Contagion," NBER Working Papers 18465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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