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Exports and Financial Shocks

  • Amiti, Mary
  • Weinstein, David E.

A striking feature of many financial crises is the collapse of exports relative to output. In the 2008 financial crisis, real world exports plunged 17 percent while GDP fell 5 percent. This paper examines whether the drying up of trade finance can help explain the large drops in exports relative to output. This paper is the first to establish a causal link between the health of banks providing trade finance and growth in a firm’s exports relative to its domestic sales. We overcome measurement and endogeneity issues by using a unique data set, covering the Japanese financial crises of the 1990s, which enables us to match exporters with the main bank that provides them with trade finance. Our point estimates are economically and statistically significant, suggesting that trade finance accounts for about one-third of the decline in Japanese exports in the financial crises of the 1990s.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7590.

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Date of creation: Dec 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7590
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  1. Michael W. Klein & Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2002. "Troubled Banks, Impaired Foreign Direct Investment: The Role of Relative Access to Credit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 664-682, June.
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  8. Thomas Chaney, 2013. "Liquidity Constrained Exporters," NBER Working Papers 19170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. James E. Anderson & Douglas Marcouiller, 2002. "Insecurity And The Pattern Of Trade: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 342-352, May.
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  12. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1996. "The International Transmission of Financial Shocks: The Case of Japan," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 357, Boston College Department of Economics.
  13. Yafeh Yishay, 1995. "Corporate Ownership, Profitability, and Bank-Firm Ties: Evidence from the American Occupation Reforms in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 154-173, June.
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  15. Iacovone, Leonardo & Zavacka, Veronika, 2009. "Banking crises and exports : lessons from the past," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5016, The World Bank.
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  17. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2004. "Corporate Financing and Governance in Japan: The Road to the Future," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582481, June.
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