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Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020

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  • Eugenio M. Cerutti
  • Maurice Obstfeld
  • Haonan Zhou

Abstract

This paper studies how several macrofinancial factors are associated over time with the evolution of covered interest parity (CIP) deviations in the decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Changes in a number of risk- and policy-related factors have a significant association with the evolution of CIP deviations. Key measures of FX market liquidity and intermediaries’ risk-taking capacity are strongly correlated with the cross-currency basis (the deviation from CIP), and the close relationship between broad U.S. dollar strength and the basis is driven mainly by a common factor depending on other safe-haven currencies’ comovements. Postcrisis monetary policies also play a role, as demonstrated by the relationship between CIP deviations, central bank balance sheets, and term premia. Risk-related factors have more explanatory power than monetary policy-related factors over the entire 2010-2018 period, but they are approximately equally influential over the period’s second half. Further highlighting the role of bank regulation, we offer evidence that the year-end dynamics of the three- month dollar basis depend on financial regulations targeting global systemically important financial institutions.
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  • Eugenio M. Cerutti & Maurice Obstfeld & Haonan Zhou, 2020. "Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14509
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrea Fabiani & Martha López & José-Luis Peydró & Paul E. Soto, 2021. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," Borradores de Economia 1162, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. N.R. Ramírez-Rondán & Marco E. Terrones, 2019. "Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition: How Are They Related?," Working Papers 156, Peruvian Economic Association.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
    5. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "US dollar funding: an international perspective," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65, June.
    6. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Kenneth H. Kang & Changyong Rhee, 2021. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 361-394, April.
    7. Mr. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Changyong Rhee & Mr. Kenneth H Kang, 2019. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia," IMF Working Papers 2019/169, International Monetary Fund.

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    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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