IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/14509.html

Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Eugenio M. Cerutti
  • Maurice Obstfeld
  • Haonan Zhou

Abstract

This paper studies how several macrofinancial factors are associated over time with the evolution of covered interest parity (CIP) deviations in the decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Changes in a number of risk- and policy-related factors have a significant association with the evolution of CIP deviations. Key measures of FX market liquidity and intermediaries’ risk-taking capacity are strongly correlated with the cross-currency basis (the deviation from CIP), and the close relationship between broad U.S. dollar strength and the basis is driven mainly by a common factor depending on other safe-haven currencies’ comovements. Postcrisis monetary policies also play a role, as demonstrated by the relationship between CIP deviations, central bank balance sheets, and term premia. Risk-related factors have more explanatory power than monetary policy-related factors over the entire 2010-2018 period, but they are approximately equally influential over the period’s second half. Further highlighting the role of bank regulation, we offer evidence that the year-end dynamics of the three- month dollar basis depend on financial regulations targeting global systemically important financial institutions.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio M. Cerutti & Maurice Obstfeld & Haonan Zhou, 2020. "Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14509
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hernández, Juan R., 2025. "Covered interest parity: A forecasting approach to estimate the neutral band," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Mr. Tobias Adrian & Peichu Xie, 2020. "The Non-U.S. Bank Demand for U.S. Dollar Assets," IMF Working Papers 2020/101, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco E. & Winkelried, Diego, 2025. "The role of US bank liquidity and regulations in Covered Interest Parity deviations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    5. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Real Output and Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Kai Schellekens & Patty Duijm, 2022. "Effectiveness of Central Bank Swap Lines in Alleviating the Mispricing of FX Swaps at the Start of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 752, DNB.
    7. Wohlfarth, Paul & Chen, Xiaohong, 2024. "Limits to arbitrage and the term structure of CIP violations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    8. Rodrigo Sekkel & Henry Stern & Xu Zhang, 2025. "Money Talks: How Foreign and Domestic Monetary Policy Communications Move Financial Markets," Staff Working Papers 25-33, Bank of Canada.
    9. Nidhi Aggarwal & Sanchit Arora & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2025. "Capital Mobility Based on Onshore-Offshore Arbitrage: Empirical Evidence from India and China," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 36(4), pages 1125-1155, September.
    10. Wenxin Du & Ritt Keerati & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege," International Finance Discussion Papers 1427, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán & Marco E. Terrones, 2024. "Uncertainty and the uncovered interest parity condition: How are they related?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 160(4), pages 1505-1542, November.
    12. Iwanaga, Yasuhiro & Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2025. "Conditional currency momentum portfolios," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    13. Gerardo Ferrara & Philippe Mueller & Ganesh Viswanath-Natraj & Junxuan Wang, 2022. "Central bank swap lines: micro-level evidence," Bank of England working papers 977, Bank of England.
    14. Nadav Ben Zeev & Daniel Nathan, 2023. "The Persistent Widening of Cross-Currency Basis: When Increased FX Swap Demand Meets Limits of Arbitrage," Working Papers 2316, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    15. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2023. "International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 1-34, March.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
    17. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Nathan, Daniel, 2024. "The widening of cross-currency basis: When increased FX swap demand meets limits of arbitrage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Sevgi Coşkun & Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2022. "Technology shocks and covered interest parity deviations in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1374, September.
    19. José Gabriel Astaíza-Gómez, 2025. "Uncertainty, Risk, and Opaque Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-32, March.
    20. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "US dollar funding: an international perspective," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65.
    22. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Kenneth H. Kang & Changyong Rhee, 2021. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 361-394, April.
    23. Du, Wenxin & Keerati, Ritt & Schreger, Jesse, 2025. "Decoupling Dollar and Treasury Privilege," SocArXiv 7u9kn_v1, Center for Open Science.
    24. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14509. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.