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Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020

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  • Eugenio M. Cerutti
  • Maurice Obstfeld
  • Haonan Zhou

Abstract

This paper studies how several macrofinancial factors are associated over time with the evolution of covered interest parity (CIP) deviations in the decade after the Global Financial Crisis. Changes in a number of risk- and policy-related factors have a significant association with the evolution of CIP deviations. Key measures of FX market liquidity and intermediaries’ risk-taking capacity are strongly correlated with the cross-currency basis (the deviation from CIP), and the close relationship between broad U.S. dollar strength and the basis is driven mainly by a common factor depending on other safe-haven currencies’ comovements. Postcrisis monetary policies also play a role, as demonstrated by the relationship between CIP deviations, central bank balance sheets, and term premia. Risk-related factors have more explanatory power than monetary policy-related factors over the entire 2010-2018 period, but they are approximately equally influential over the period’s second half. Further highlighting the role of bank regulation, we offer evidence that the year-end dynamics of the three- month dollar basis depend on financial regulations targeting global systemically important financial institutions.
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  • Eugenio M. Cerutti & Maurice Obstfeld & Haonan Zhou, 2020. "Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:14509
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    Cited by:

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    2. Fabiani, Andrea & López-Piñeros, Martha & Peydró, José-Luis & Soto, Paul E., 2022. "Capital Controls, Domestic Macroprudential Policy and the Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139(November ), pages 1-1.
    3. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Real Output and Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Kai Schellekens & Patty Duijm, 2022. "Effectiveness of Central Bank Swap Lines in Alleviating the Mispricing of FX Swaps at the Start of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 752, DNB.
    5. N.R. Ramírez-Rondán & Marco E. Terrones, 2019. "Uncertainty and the Uncovered Interest Parity Condition: How Are They Related?," Working Papers 156, Peruvian Economic Association.
    6. Ferrara, Gerardo & Mueller, Philippe & Viswanath-Natraj, Ganesh & Wang, Junxuan, 2022. "Central bank swap lines: micro-level evidence," Bank of England working papers 977, Bank of England.
    7. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Maurice Obstfeld, 2020. "Global Dimensions of U.S. Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 73-132, February.
    9. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2023. "International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 1-34, March.
    10. Sevgi Coşkun & Oyakhilome Ibhagui, 2022. "Technology shocks and covered interest parity deviations in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1337-1374, September.
    11. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Bank for International Settlements, 2020. "US dollar funding: an international perspective," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65, december.
    13. Gee Hee Hong & Anne Oeking & Kenneth H. Kang & Changyong Rhee, 2021. "What Do Deviations from Covered Interest Parity and Higher FX Hedging Costs Mean for Asia?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 361-394, April.
    14. Bazán, Walter & Ortiz, Marco & Terrones, Marco & Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "CIP deviations: The role of U.S. banks’ liquidity and regulations," MPRA Paper 118600, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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