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The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination

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Abstract

We document the exchange rate hedging channel that connects country-level measures of net external financial imbalances with exchange rates. In times of market distress, countries with large positive external imbalances (e.g. Japan) experience domestic currency appreciation, and crucially, forward exchange rates appreciate relatively more than the spot after adjusting for interest rate differentials. Countries with large negative foreign asset positions experience the opposite currency movements. We present a model demonstrating that exchange rate hedging coupled with intermediary constraints can explain these observed relationships between net external imbalances and spot and forward exchange rates. We find empirical support for this currency hedging channel of exchange rate determination in both the conditional and unconditional moments of exchange rates, option prices, large institutional investors' disclosure of hedging activities, and central bank swap line usage during the COVID-19 market turmoil.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1283
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2020.1283
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    Cited by:

    1. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. Liao, Gordon Y., 2020. "Credit migration and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 504-525.
    3. Ricardo Correa & Wenxin Du & Gordon Y. Liao, 2020. "U.S. Banks and Global Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 27491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global imbalance; Exchange rate; Forward; Hedging; Covered interest rate parity; Currency options; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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