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Exchange Rate Reconnect

Author

Listed:
  • Lilley, Andrew
  • Maggiori, Matteo
  • Neiman, Brent
  • Schreger, Jesse

Abstract

The failure to find fundamentals that co-move with exchange rates or forecasting models with even mild predictive power â?? facts broadly referred to as "exchange rate disconnect" â?? stands among the most disappointing, but robust, facts in all of international macroeconomics. In this paper, we demonstrate that U.S. purchases of foreign bonds, which did not co-move with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample, and even some out-of-sample, explanatory power for currencies since then. We show that several proxies for global risk factors also start to co-move strongly with the dollar and with U.S. purchases of foreign bonds around 2007, suggesting that risk plays a key role in this finding. We use security-level data on U.S. portfolios to demonstrate that the reconnect of U.S. foreign bond purchases to exchange rates is largely driven by investment in dollar-denominated assets rather than by foreign currency exposure alone. Our results support the narrative emerging from an active recent literature that the US dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Lilley, Andrew & Maggiori, Matteo & Neiman, Brent & Schreger, Jesse, 2019. "Exchange Rate Reconnect," CEPR Discussion Papers 13869, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13869
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Samer Shousha, 2019. "The Dollar and Emerging Market Economies: Financial Vulnerabilities Meet the International Trade System," International Finance Discussion Papers 1258, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Oct 2019.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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