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Currency Premia and Global Imbalances

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  • Della Corte, Pasquale
  • Riddiough, Steven
  • Sarno, Lucio

Abstract

We show that a global imbalance risk factor that captures the spread in countriesÂ’external imbalances and their propensity to issue external liabilities in foreign currency explains the cross-sectional variation in currency excess returns. The economic intuition is simple: net debtor countries offer a currency risk premium to compensate investors willing to finance negative external imbalances because their currencies depreciate in bad times. This mechanism is consistent with exchange rate theory based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. We also find that the global imbalance factor is priced in cross sections of other major asset markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Della Corte, Pasquale & Riddiough, Steven & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 11129, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11129
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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