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Currency Premia and Global Imbalances

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  • Della Corte, Pasquale
  • Riddiough, Steven
  • Sarno, Lucio

Abstract

We show that a global imbalance risk factor that captures the spread in countries' external imbalances and their propensity to issue external liabilities in foreign currency explains the cross-sectional variation in currency excess returns. The economic intuition is simple: net debtor countries offer a currency risk premium to compensate investors willing to finance negative external imbalances because their currencies depreciate in bad times. This mechanism is consistent with exchange rate theory based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. We also find that the global imbalance factor is priced in cross sections of other major asset markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Della Corte, Pasquale & Riddiough, Steven & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Currency Premia and Global Imbalances," CEPR Discussion Papers 11129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11129
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    Cited by:

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    2. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    3. Colacito, Riccardo & Croce, Mariano Massimiliano & Liu, Yang & Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2018. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," CEPR Discussion Papers 13325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    5. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:212-227 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Berg, Kimberly A. & Mark, Nelson C., 2018. "Global macro risks in currency excess returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 300-315.
    9. Gardberg, Malin, 2018. "Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements," Working Paper Series 1246, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Gräb, Johannes & Kostka, Thomas, 2018. "Predicting risk premia in short-term interest rates and exchange rates," Working Paper Series 2131, European Central Bank.
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    12. Vasilyev, Dmitry (Васильев, Дмитрий) & Busygin, Vladimir (Бусыгин, Владимир) & Busygin, Sergei (Бусыгин, Сергей), 2016. "Testing and Interpreting Uncovered Interest Parity in Russia
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    13. Angelo Ranaldo & Fabricius Somogyi, 2018. "Heterogeneous Information Content of Global FX Trading," Working Papers on Finance 1820, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Dec 2018.
    14. Dreher, Ferdinand & Gräb, Johannes & Kostka, Thomas, 2018. "From carry trades to curvy trades," Working Paper Series 2149, European Central Bank.
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    16. repec:eee:ememar:v:36:y:2018:i:c:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    carry trade; currency risk premium; foreign exchange excess returns; global imbalances;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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