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Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?

Author

Listed:
  • Wenxin Du
  • Benjamin Hébert
  • Amy Wang Huber
  • Stefano Giglio

Abstract

Violations of no-arbitrage conditions measure the shadow cost of intermediary constraints. Intermediary asset pricing and intertemporal hedging together imply that the risk of these constraints tightening is priced. We describe a “forward CIP trading strategy” that bets on CIP violations shrinking and show that its returns help identify the price of this risk. This strategy yields the highest returns for currency pairs associated with the carry trade. The strategy’s risk substantially contributes to the volatility of the stochastic discount factor, is correlated with both other near-arbitrages and intermediary wealth measures, and appears to be consistently priced across various asset classes.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenxin Du & Benjamin Hébert & Amy Wang Huber & Stefano Giglio, 2023. "Are Intermediary Constraints Priced?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(4), pages 1464-1507.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:36:y:2023:i:4:p:1464-1507.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhac050
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon Y. Liao & Tony Zhang, 2020. "The Hedging Channel of Exchange Rate Determination," International Finance Discussion Papers 1283, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Real Output and Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Ricardo Correa & Wenxin Du & Gordon Y. Liao, 2025. "US Banks and Global Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(4), pages 574-620.
    5. Gino Cenedese & Pasquale Della Corte & Tianyu Wang, 2021. "Currency Mispricing and Dealer Balance Sheets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2763-2803, December.
    6. Hyeyoon Jung, 2021. "Real Consequences of Shocks to Intermediaries Supplying Corporate Hedging Instruments," Staff Reports 989, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Aldunate, Felipe & Da, Zhi & Larrain, Borja & Sialm, Clemens, 2025. "Pension fund flows, exchange rates, and covered interest rate parity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Mario Cerrato & Shengfeng Mei, 2024. "Quantitative Easing, Banks’ Funding Costs and Credit Line Prices (updated version 2025_03)," Working Papers 2024_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Kubitza, Christian & Sigaux, Jean-David & Vandeweyer, Quentin, 2025. "The implications of CIP deviations for international capital flows," Working Paper Series 3017, European Central Bank.
    10. Brøgger, Søren Bundgaard, 2021. "The market impact of predictable flows: Evidence from leveraged VIX products," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. Mario Cerrato & Shengfeng Mei, 2025. "Quantitative Easing, Banks’ Funding Costs, and Credit Line Prices," Working Papers 2025_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    12. Hou, Ai Jun & Sarno, Lucio & Ye, Xiaoxia, 2025. "The trade imbalance network and currency returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    13. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein & Adi Sunderam, 2020. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 27615, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Nariman, Farhad & Heshmati, Almas, 2022. "Are Entrepreneurs Aware of Covered Interest Parity and Dollar Shortage?," IZA Discussion Papers 15216, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, 2023. "International Macroeconomics: From the Great Financial Crisis to COVID-19, and Beyond," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 1-34, March.
    16. Li, Kai & Xu, Chenjie, 2024. "Intermediary-based equity term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    17. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2025. "Central Bank–Driven Mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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