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Central Bank–Driven Mispricing

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  • Pelizzon, Loriana
  • Subrahmanyam, Marti G.
  • Tomio, Davide

Abstract

We explore whether Quantitative Easing (QE) negatively affected the functioning of the treasury market. Focusing on the arbitrage between European sovereign bonds and their futures contracts, we show that the scarcity of treasuries created by QE led to a disconnect between the prices of identical assets. We identify three channels: reduced bond market liquidity, increased funding costs in the repo market, and a higher cost of carry. A change in a policy instrument allows us to identify scarcity as the main driver and rule out alternatives, such as balance sheet costs. Our results extend to other arbitrage relations involving treasuries.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2025. "Central Bank–Driven Mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:166:y:2025:i:c:s0304405x25000121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central Bank interventions; Price discovery; Sovereign bonds; Futures contracts; Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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