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Valuation and Optimal Exercise of the Wild Card Option in the Treasury Bond Futures Market

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  • Kane, Alex
  • Marcus, Alan J

Abstract

The Chicago Board of Trade Treasury Bond Futures Contract allows the short position several delivery options as to when and with which bond the contract will be settled. The timing option allows the short position to choose any business day in the delivery month to make delivery. In addition, the contract settlement price is locked in at 2:00 p.m. when the futures market closes, despite the facts that the short position need not declare an intent to settle the contract until 8:00 p.m. and that trading in Treasury bonds car, occur all day in dealer markets. If bond prices change significantly between 2:00 and 8:00 p.m., the short has the option of settling the contract at a favorable 2:00 p.m. price. This phenomenon, which recurs on every trading day of the delivery month, creates a sequence of 6-hour put options for the short position which has been dubbed the "wild card option." This paper presents avaluation model for the wild card option and computes estimates of the value of that option, as well as rules for its optimal exercise.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kane, Alex & Marcus, Alan J, 1986. "Valuation and Optimal Exercise of the Wild Card Option in the Treasury Bond Futures Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 195-207, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:41:y:1986:i:1:p:195-207
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam-Müller, Axel F. A. & Wong, Kit Pong, 2002. "The impact of delivery risk on optimal production and futures hedging," CoFE Discussion Papers 02/08, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    2. Michèle Breton & Ramzi Ben‐Abdallah, 2018. "Time is money: An empirical investigation of delivery behavior in the U.S. T‐Bond futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 22-37, January.
    3. Dan W. French & Edwin D. Maberly, 1992. "Early Exercise Of American Index Options," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 127-137, June.
    4. David C. Ling, 1993. "Mortgage‐Backed Futures and Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 21(1), pages 47-67, March.
    5. Merrick, John Jr & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: anatomy of a squeeze," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 171-218, July.
    6. Pelizzon, Loriana & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2025. "Central Bank–Driven Mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    7. Xiaofeng Yang & Ling Zhao, 2025. "Embedded theoretical quality option pricing in Treasury bond futures—Starting from the definition deviation of conversion factor," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 1986-2000, April.
    8. Stanton, Richard, 2000. "From cradle to grave: How to loot a 401(k) plan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 485-516, June.

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