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Measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets: Conventional and Bayesian approaches

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  • Julieta Frank
  • Philip Garcia

Abstract

Estimation of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid-ask spreads are usually not observed. Spread estimators that use transaction data are available, but little agreement exists on their relative accuracy and performance. We evaluate four conventional and a recently proposed Bayesian estimators using simulated data based on Roll’s standard liquidity cost model. The Bayesian estimator tracks Roll’s model relatively well except when the level of noise in the market is large. We derive an improved estimator that seems to have a higher performance even under high levels of noise which is common in agricultural futures markets. We also compute liquidity costs using data for hogs and cattle futures contracts trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The results obtained for market data are in line with the findings using simulated data.
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  • Julieta Frank & Philip Garcia, 2011. "Measuring the cost of liquidity in agricultural futures markets: Conventional and Bayesian approaches," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42, pages 131-140, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:42:y:2011:i::p:131-140
    DOI: j.1574-0862.2011.00557.x
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00557.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. Wade Brorsen & Darren W. Buck & Stephen R. Koontz, 1998. "Hedging hard red winter wheat: Kansas City versus Chicago," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 449-466, June.
    2. Thompson, Sarahelen R. & Eales, James S. & Seibold, David, 1993. "Comparison Of Liquidity Costs Between The Kansas City And Chicago Wheat Futures Contracts," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(02), December.
    3. Thompson, Sarahelen R. & Waller, Mark L., 1987. "The Execution Cost of Trading in Commodity Futures Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, issue 02.
    4. Ferguson, Michael F & Mann, Steven C, 2001. "Execution Costs and Their Intraday Variation in Futures Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 125-160, January.
    5. Choi, J. Y. & Salandro, Dan & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1988. "On the Estimation of Bid-Ask Spreads: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 219-230, June.
    6. Thompson, S. & Waller, M.L., 1988. "Determinants Of Liquidity Costs In Commodity Furures Markets," Papers 172, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    7. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Market Depth in Lean Hog and Live Cattle Futures Markets," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37613, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.

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