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Estimating Liquidity Costs in Agricultural Futures Markets using Bayesian Methods

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  • Frank, Julieta
  • Garcia, Philip

Abstract

Estimation of liquidity costs in futures markets is challenging because bid-ask spreads are usually not observed. Several estimators of liquidity costs exist that use transaction data, but there is little agreement on their relative accuracy and usefulness, and their performance has been questioned. We use a Bayesian method proposed by Hasbrouck which possesses conceptually desirable properties to estimate liquidity costs of six agricultural future contracts. The method builds on Roll's model and uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation. Our Bayesian estimates are lower than more traditional estimates and as anticipated decrease even more when more realistic assumptions such as discreteness are incorporated. The findings demonstrate the need for further research to clarify the usefulness and accuracy of the procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip, 2006. "Estimating Liquidity Costs in Agricultural Futures Markets using Bayesian Methods," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21331, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21331
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21331
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    2. Frank, Julieta & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "Market Depth in Lean Hog and Live Cattle Futures Markets," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37613, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    3. Yuanyuan Xu & Jian Li & Linjie Wang & Xiaoli Etienne, 2025. "Examining the impact of trading volume on liquidity and prices in China's soybean complex," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 342-362, April.

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