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The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test

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  • Park, Cheol-Ho
  • Irwin, Scott H.

Abstract

Numerous empirical studies have investigated the profitability of technical trading rules in a wide variety of markets, and many of them found positive profits. Despite positive evidence about profitability and improvements in testing procedures, skepticism about technical trading profits remains widespread among academics mainly due to data snooping problems. This study tries to mitigate the problems by confirming the results of a previous study and then replicating the original testing procedure on a new body of data. Results indicate that in 12 U.S. futures markets technical trading profits have gradually declined over time. Substantial technical trading profits during the 1978-1984 period are no longer available in the 1985-2003 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2005. "The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14771, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:uiucrr:14771
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.14771
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dorfmann, Jeffrey & Karali, Berna, 2015. "A Nonparametric Search for Information Effects from USDA Reports," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20.
    3. Juan Carlos Ruilova & Pedro Alberto Morettin, 2020. "Parsimonious Heterogeneous ARCH Models for High Frequency Modeling," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Jasdeep S. Banga & B. Wade Brorsen, 2019. "Profitability of alternative methods of combining the signals from technical trading systems," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 32-45, January.
    5. Szakmary, Andrew C. & Shen, Qian & Sharma, Subhash C., 2010. "Trend-following trading strategies in commodity futures: A re-examination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 409-426, February.
    6. Hesham I. Almujamed & Suzanne G. M. Fifield & David M. Power, 2018. "An Investigation of the Weak Form of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis for the Kuwait Stock Exchange," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1), pages 1-28, April.
    7. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Trading Practices and Price Dynamics in Commodity Markets and the Stabilising Effects of a Transaction Tax," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34919, Juni.
    8. Lehecka, Georg V., 2014. "The Value of USDA Crop Progress and Condition Information: Reactions of Corn and Soybean Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Karali, Berna, 2012. "Do USDA Announcements Affect Comovements Across Commodity Futures Returns?," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 1-21, April.
    10. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2008. "Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-198, February.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238, Juni.
    12. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    13. Osama El Ansary & Mona Atuea, 2017. "Testing the Effect of Technical Analysis Strategies on Achieving Abnormal Return: Evidence from Egyptian Stock Market," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, May.
    14. Joni M. Klumpp & B. Wade Brorsen & Kim B. Anderson, 2008. "Market Advisory Service Recommendations and Wheat Producers' Selling Decisions," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(1), pages 117-128, March.
    15. repec:ags:jrapmc:122315 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Urcola, Hernan A. & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Has the Performance of the Hog Options Market Changed?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21479, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Cheol‐Ho Park & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A reality check on technical trading rule profits in the U.S. futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 633-659, July.
    18. Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Have trend-following signals in commodity futures markets become less reliable in recent years?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(4), pages 533-553, December.
    19. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582, Juni.

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