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The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data


  • Stephan Schulmeister



This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2,580 widely used models is analysed. When based on daily data, the profitability of technical stock trading has steadily declined since 1960 and has become unprofitable over the 1990s. However, when based on 30-minutes data the same models produce an average gross return of 8.8 percent per year between 1983 and 2000. These results do not change substantially when trading is simulated over six subperiods. Those 25 models which performed best over the most recent subperiod produce a significantly higher gross return over the subsequent subperiod than do all models together. Over the out-of-sample period 2001–2006 the 2,580 models perform much worse than between 1983 and 2000. This result could be due to stock markets becoming more efficient or to stock price trends shifting from 30-minutes prices to prices of higher frequencies.

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  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Profitability of Technical Stock Trading has Moved from Daily to Intraday Data," WIFO Working Papers 289, WIFO.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2007:i:289

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ottmar Röhm & Stephan Dabbert, 2003. "Integrating Agri-Environmental Programs into Regional Production Models: An Extension of Positive Mathematical Programming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 254-265.
    2. Donna J. Lee & Richard E. Howitt, 1996. "Modeling Regional Agricultural Production and Salinity Control Alternatives for Water Quality Policy Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 41-53.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
    3. Shangkun Deng & Kazuki Yoshiyama & Takashi Mitsubuchi & Akito Sakurai, 2015. "Hybrid Method of Multiple Kernel Learning and Genetic Algorithm for Forecasting Short-Term Foreign Exchange Rates," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 49-89, January.
    4. Andreas Gronlund & Il Gu Yi & Beom Jun Kim, 2012. "Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market," Papers 1205.0505,
    5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Manic-depressive Price Fluctuations in the Financial Market – How Does the "Invisible Hand" Do it?," WIFO Working Papers 305, WIFO.

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    Technical trading; stock price dynamics; momentum effect; reversal effect;

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