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The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange: Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?

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  • Gehrig, Thomas
  • Menkhoff,Lukas

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behaviour and motivation of fund managers in foreign exchange markets reflected in questionnaire evidence. We find that fund managers and FX dealers differ significantly. Fund managers rely more on fundamentals, basically due to their longer forecasting horizons, and reject non-fundamental influences on exchange rates more than FX dealers. However, neither can fund managers be considered as pure fundamentalists. Non-fundamentalist positions markedly influence short-term decision-making. They inspire ambivalent views about market imperfections and these views seem to become stronger over time. This latter change counterbalances the strengthening fundamental influences resulting from the rise of fund managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff,Lukas, 2004. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange: Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-308, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  • Handle: RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-308
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    Cited by:

    1. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    2. Fischer, Andreas M. & Isakova, Gulzina & Termechikov, Ulanbek, 2009. "Do FX traders in Bishkek have similar perceptions to their London colleagues?: Survey evidence of market practitioners' views," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 98-109, March.
    3. Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Markets: A Survey of Empirical Studies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1187-1208, September.
    4. repec:wfo:wstudy:34919 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High-Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    6. repec:wfo:wstudy:45238 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    8. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Aggregate trading behaviour of technical models and the yen/dollar exchange rate 1976-2007," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 270-279, August.
    9. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006. "Robust lessons about practical early warning systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 163-193, February.
    10. John Harvey, 2009. "Currency Market Participants' Mental Model and the Collapse of the Dollar: 2001-2008," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 931-949.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    12. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    13. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign exchange; market microstructure; fund management; fundamentals;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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