IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wfo/wpaper/y2008i324.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Aggregate Trading Behaviour of Technical Models and the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate 1976-2007

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

The study analyses the interaction between the trading behaviour of 1,024 moving average and momentum models and the fluctuations of the yen-dollar exchange rate. I show first that these models would have exploited exchange rate trends quite profitably between 1976 and 2007. I then show that the aggregate transactions and positions of technical models exert an excess demand pressure on currency markets since they are mostly on the same side of the market. When technical models produce trading signals almost all of them are either buying or selling, when they maintain open positions they are either long or short. A strong interaction prevails between exchange rate movements and the transactions triggered by technical models. An initial rise of the exchange rate due to news, e.g., is systematically lengthened through a sequence of technical buy signals.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Aggregate Trading Behaviour of Technical Models and the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate 1976-2007," WIFO Working Papers 324, WIFO.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:324
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.wifo.ac.at/wwa/pubid/32881
    File Function: abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 11, pages 457-475, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2005. "The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange:Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 519-540, April.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Ian W. Marsh, 2004. "How do UK-based foreign exchange dealers think their market operates?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 289-306.
    4. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Hommes, Cars, 2006. "A dynamic analysis of moving average rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1729-1753.
    5. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Components of the profitability of technical currency trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 917-930.
    8. Lui, Yu-Hon & Mole, David, 1998. "The use of fundamental and technical analyses by foreign exchange dealers: Hong Kong evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 535-545, June.
    9. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    10. Menkhoff, L., 1998. "The noise trading approach -- questionnaire evidence from foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 547-564, June.
    11. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 12, pages 477-505, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    13. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233, Elsevier.
    14. Carol L. Osler, 2006. "Macro lessons from microstructure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 55-80.
    15. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Profitability of Technical Currency Speculation. The Case of Yen-Dollar Trading 1976-2007," WIFO Working Papers 325, WIFO.
    16. Oberlechner, Thomas, 2001. "Importance of Technical and Fundamental Analysis in the European Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 81-93, January.
    17. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    18. Osler, Carol L., 2005. "Stop-loss orders and price cascades in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 219-241, March.
    19. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    20. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    21. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2004. "The use of flow analysis in foreign exchange: exploratory evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 573-594, June.
    22. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    23. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66, March.
    24. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Understanding Order Flow," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 13, pages 507-546, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    25. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
    27. Carol L. Osler, 2003. "Currency Orders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Explanation for the Predictive Success of Technical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1791-1820, October.
    28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2014. "Dynamic characteristics of the daily yen–dollar exchange rate," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 72-82.
    2. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Die neue Weltwirtschaftskrise - Ursachen, Folgen, Gegenstrategien," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 106, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    3. Evans, Trevor & Herr, Hansjörg, 2016. "Financialisation in currency, energy and residential property markets," IPE Working Papers 62/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Technical Trading and Trends in the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 37582, February.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238, February.
    6. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
    7. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Trading Practices and Price Dynamics in Commodity Markets and the Stabilising Effects of a Transaction Tax," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34919, February.
    9. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    10. Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," CEPN Working Papers halshs-02956879, HAL.
    11. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
    12. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Frömmel, Michael & Lampaert, Kevin, 2016. "Does frequency matter for intraday technical trading?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 177-183.
    14. Menkhoff, Lukas, 2010. "The use of technical analysis by fund managers: International evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2573-2586, November.
    15. Stephan Schulmeister, 2014. "A General Financial Transactions Tax. Motives, Effects and Implementation According to the Proposal of the European Commission," WIFO Working Papers 461, WIFO.
    16. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Federico Bassi & Raquel Ramos & Dany Lang, 2023. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits: An agent-based model of endogenous fluctuations of exchange rates," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 429-472, April.
    18. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
    19. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland.
    20. Thomas Gehrig & Lukas Menkhoff, 2006. "Extended evidence on the use of technical analysis in foreign exchange," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 327-338.
    21. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Long swings and chaos in the exchange rate in a DSGE model with a Taylor rule," Research Discussion Papers 19/2007, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Technical Trading; Speculation; Heterogeneous Agents;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Florian Mayr (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wifooat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.