IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/psl/bnlaqr/198841.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Stephan Schulmeister

Abstract

In this study the reasons behind the wide fluctuations of the dollar exchange rate following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, for the most part unexplained by the prevailing exchange rate theories, are explored. To do so, the author investigates the exchange rate between the two most traded currencies, the dollar and the deutschemark, from 1973 to 1988. In the first part, the pattern of the daily exchange rate movements is examined to show that a sequence of upward and downward trends interrupted by non-directional movements is typical of exchange rate dynamics in the short run. Moreover, this pattern is systemically exploited through currency speculation, particularly through the use of “technical analysis”. In the second part, the author focuses on the medium-term, arguing that fluctuations can be explained as the result of interacting disequilibria in the goods and asset markets. Although currency speculation has been systemically profitable for most currencies, it should be considered to be destabilizing since the sequence of price runs caused large and persistent deviations of exchange rates from their equilibrium values (purchasing power parity).

Suggested Citation

  • Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:1988:41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10837/10716
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-668, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maria Minniti & William Bygrave, 2001. "A Dynamic Model of Entrepreneurial Learning," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 25(3), pages 5-16, April.
    2. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    3. Carlisle Ford Runge, 1984. "Strategic Interdependence in Models of Property Rights," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(5), pages 807-813.
    4. Yuri Biondi & Simone Righi, 2013. "What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary," Papers 1312.7460, arXiv.org.
    5. Wihlborg, Clas, 1987. "Speculation, Bubbles, and Sunspots under Structural Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 180, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    6. Caleb Stroup, 2017. "International Deal Experience And Cross-Border Acquisitions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 73-97, January.
    7. Roger J. Bowden, 1990. "Predictive Disequilibria and the Short Run Dynamics of Asset Prices," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(1), pages 65-87, June.
    8. Stefano Eusepi, 2004. "Does Central Bank Transparency Matter for Economic Stability," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 176, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Biondi Yuri, 2011. "The Pure Logic of Accounting: A Critique of the Fair Value Revolution," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-49, January.
    10. Samira Demaria & Frédéric Marty, 2007. "Financiarisation, Evaluation et Information Comptable : De la création de valeur aux IFRS," Post-Print halshs-00266259, HAL.
    11. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
    12. Myers, Robert J. & Oehmke, James F., 1987. "Instability and Risk as Rationales for Government Intervention in Agriculture," Staff Paper Series 200938, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    13. Al-Ubaydli, Omar & Boettke, Peter, 2010. "Markets as economizers of information: Field experimental examination of the “Hayek Hypothesis”," MPRA Paper 27660, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Nyarko, Yaw, 1997. "Convergence in Economic Models with Bayesian Hierarchies of Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 266-296, June.
    15. Yuri Biondi & Pierpaolo Giannoccolo, 2015. "Share price formation, market exuberance and financial stability under alternative accounting regimes," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(2), pages 333-362, October.
    16. J. Runde & C. Torr*, 1985. "Divergent Expectations and Rational Expectations," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 53(3), pages 142-147, September.
    17. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2010. "Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 385-403, December.
    18. Eliasson, Gunnar, 1989. "The Economics of Coordination, Innovation, Selection and Learning: A Theoretical Framework for Research in Industrial Economics," Working Paper Series 235, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    19. Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. John R. O'Brien, 1990. "Ex post disclosure and the coordination of investors' adaptive expectations," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dollar exchange rate; Bretton Woods system; price; speculation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:bnlaqr:1988:41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Carlo D'Ippoliti (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.economiacivile.it .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.