Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics
This article studies dynamics in a model where agents forecast a one dimensional variable via ordinary least squares regressions on the lagged values of the state variable. We study the stability properties of alternative transformations of the state variable that the agent can endogenously set forth. We study the consequences on the economy's stability of the typical transformations that an econometrician would attemp, such as differencing, detrending, or taking instantaneous concave transformations, such as logarithms. Surprinsingly, for the considered class of economies, we found that these transformations are destabilizing, whereas alternative transformations, which an econometrician would never consider, such as convex transformations, are stabilizing. Therefore, we ironically find that in our set-up. an active agent, who is concerned about learning the economy's dynamics and transforms the state variable, in an attempt to improve forecasting, is more likely to deviate from the steady state than a passive agent.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1742-7355|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1742-7355|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chatterji Shurojit, 1995.
"Temporary Equilibrium Dynamics with Bayesian Learning,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 590-598, December.
- Shurojit Chatterji, 1995. "Temporary Eq'Uilibrium Dynamics With Bayesian Learning," Working Papers. Serie AD 1995-09, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-668, September.
- Lobato, Ignacio N, 2003. "Testing for Nonlinear Autoregression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 164-173, January.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1986. "Adaptive Behavior and Economic Theory," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 401-426, October.
- Grandmont Jean-michel & Laroque G, 1990. "Economic dynamics with learning : some instability examples," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9007, CEPREMAP.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1998. "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 23-44.
- George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, "undated". "Economic Dynamics with Learning: New Stability Results," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 51, Society for Computational Economics.
- Lettau, M. & Van Zandt, T., 1995. "Robustness of Adaptive Expections as an Equilibrium Selection Device," Papers 9598, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Lettau, Martin & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2001. "Robustness of Adaptive Expectations as an Equilibrium Selection Device," CEPR Discussion Papers 2882, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Saari, Donald G. & Williams, Steven R., 1986. "On the local convergence of economic mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 152-167, October.
- Chatterji, Shurojit & Chattopadhyay, Subir, 2000. "Global stability in spite of "local instability" with learning," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-165, March.
- Coulson, N Edward & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "A Test of the First Difference Transformation in Time Series Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 723-726, November.
- Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
- Chatterji, Shurojit & Ghosal, Sayantan, 2004. "Local coordination and market equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 255-279, February.
- Van Zandt, Timothy & Lettau, Martin, 2003. "Robustness Of Adaptive Expectations As An Equilibrium Selection Device," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 89-118, February.
- Spear, Stephen E. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "Markov rational expectations equilibria in an overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 35-62, February.
- Spear, Stephen E., 1985. "Rational expectations in the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 251-275, August.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1982. "Rational expectations and the Markov property of temporary equilibrium processes," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1-2), pages 135-144, January. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ijethy:v:6:y:2010:i:4:p:385-403. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.