IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ksa/szemle/268.html

A racionális és a naiv várakozások stabilitásának összehasonlítása
[Commparison of the stability of rational and naive expectations]

Author

Listed:
  • Simonovits, András

Abstract

A modern közgazdaságtanban a racionális várakozások feltevése egyre inkább háttérbe szorítja a naiv (vagy adaptív) várakozásokét. Grandmont [1998] egy viszonylag egyszerű modell segítségével megmutatta, hogy az állandósult állapot lokális stabilitása szempontjából a naiv várakozások általában jobbak, mint a racionális várakozások. Először általánosítjuk az alapmodellt, és ezzel általánosítjuk Grandmont eredményeit. Majd egy konkrét modellt vizsgálunk, az együttélő nemzedékekét, amely nem pontosan illeszkedik az alapmodellhez, azonban a kvalitatív eredmények hasonlók.

Suggested Citation

  • Simonovits, András, 1999. "A racionális és a naiv várakozások stabilitásának összehasonlítása [Commparison of the stability of rational and naive expectations]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 689-700.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:268
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.kszemle.hu/tartalom/letoltes.php?id=268
    Download Restriction: Registration and subscription. 3-month embargo period to non-subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 1985. "Comparative Statics and Perfect Foresight in Infinite Horizon Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 433-453, March.
    2. Gale, David, 1973. "Pure exchange equilibrium of dynamic economic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, February.
    3. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    4. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
    5. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    7. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
    8. Fuchs, Gerard, 1979. "Is error learning behaviour stabilizing?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 300-317, June.
    9. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    10. Laitner, John P, 1981. "The Stability of Steady States in Perfect Foresight Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(2), pages 319-333, March.
    11. Gale, David, 1974. "The trade imbalance story," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, May.
    12. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    13. Miguel Sidrauski, 1967. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(6), pages 796-796.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Molnar, Gyorgy & Simonovits, Andras, 1998. "Expectations, (in)stability and (in)viability in realistic overlapping cohorts models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 303-332, September.
    2. Simonovits, Andras, 1999. "Are there cycles in realistic overlapping cohorts models?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 261-275, June.
    3. Hommes, Cars, 2018. "Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex systems approach," Working Paper Series 2201, European Central Bank.
    4. Georges, Christophre, 2003. "Adjustment costs, learning, and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, October.
    5. Goeree, Jacob K. & Hommes, Cars H., 2000. "Heterogeneous beliefs and the non-linear cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 761-798, June.
    6. Michael Assous & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2017. "Challenging Lucas: from overlapping generations to infinite-lived agent models," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_03, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. Simonovits, András, 1995. "Az együtt élő korosztályok modellcsaládja [The family of overlapping cohorts models]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 358-386.
    8. Kelly, David L. & Shorish, Jamsheed, 2000. "Stability of Functional Rational Expectations Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 215-250, December.
    9. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Valentyn Panchenko & Roy Weide, 2008. "E&F Chaos: A User Friendly Software Package for Nonlinear Economic Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 221-244, September.
    10. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1997. "Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance," Working papers 9706, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    11. AndrÁ Simonovits, 1999. "Linear Decentralized Control with Expectations," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 321-330.
    12. Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel & Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Lemaire, Isabelle, 2018. "Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs, asset pricing, and risk sharing in complete financial markets," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 117-146.
    13. Chen, Hung-Ju & Li, Ming-Chia & Lin, Yung-Ju, 2008. "Chaotic dynamics in an overlapping generations model with myopic and adaptive expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 48-56, July.
    14. Bao, Te & Duffy, John, 2016. "Adaptive versus eductive learning: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 64-89.
    15. Barucci, Emilio, 2000. "Exponentially fading memory learning in forward-looking economic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 1027-1046, June.
    16. Barbara Dluhosch, 2011. "European Economics at a Crossroads, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr., Richard P. F. Holt, and David Colander," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 629-631, August.
    17. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2006. "Temporary Equilibrium," Working Papers 2006-27, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    18. Shurojit Chatterji & Ignacio N. Lobato, 2010. "Transformations of the state variable and learning dynamics," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(4), pages 385-403, December.
    19. J. Barkley Rosser, 2001. "Alternative Keynesian and Post Keynesian Perspective on Uncertainty and Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 545-566, July.
    20. SaangJoon Baak, 2000. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Volatility and Welfare," Working Papers EMS_2000_01, Research Institute, International University of Japan.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:268. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Odon Sok The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Odon Sok to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.kszemle.hu .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.