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Models of Compelxity in Economics and Finance

  • Brock, W.A.
  • Hommes, C.H.

We have set out a general framework for adaptive belief systems in asset pricing thery. Fluctuations in prices and returns are driven by an evolutionary dynamics between traders with different expectations about prices.

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File URL: http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/econ/archive/wp9706.pdf
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Paper provided by Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems in its series Working papers with number 9706.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:att:wimass:9706
Contact details of provider: Postal: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON, SOCIAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE(S.S.R.I.), MADISON WISCONSIN 53706 U.S.A.

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  1. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
  3. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 1998. "Expectations Formation and Stability of Large Socioeconomic Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 741-782, July.
  4. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  5. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
  6. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  7. Rosen, S. & Murphy, K.M. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1993. "Cattle Cycles," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 93-2, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  8. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
  9. repec:att:wimass:9506 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
  11. Blake LeBaron, 1994. "Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance," Finance 9411001, EconWPA.
  12. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "On the consistency of backward-looking expectations: The case of the cobweb," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 333-362, January.
  14. Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November.
  15. Sorger, Gerhard, 1998. "Imperfect foresight and chaos: an example of a self-fulfilling mistake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 363-383, January.
  16. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  17. William A. Brock & Blake D. LeBaron, 1995. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 4988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521484619 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  20. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  21. Brock, William A. & Sayers, Chera L., 1988. "Is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-90, July.
  22. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
  23. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
  24. Michele Boldrin & Michael Woodford, 1988. "Equilibruim Models Displaying Endogenous Fluctuations and Chaos: A Survey," UCLA Economics Working Papers 530, UCLA Department of Economics.
  25. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-37, July.
  26. Brock, W. A., 1986. "Distinguishing random and deterministic systems: Abridged version," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 168-195, October.
  27. Sterman, John D., 1989. "Deterministic chaos in an experimental economic system," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-28, August.
  28. M. M. Dacorogna & U. A. Muller & C. Jost & O. V. Pictet & J. R. Ward, 1995. "Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 383-403.
  29. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1995. "Rational Routes to Randomness," Working Papers 95-03-029, Santa Fe Institute.
  30. Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent, 1995. "On the mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies," Staff Report 198, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  31. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  32. William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005.
  33. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
  34. Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129.
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