Chaos and Nonlinear Forecastability in Economics and Finance
Both academic and applied researchers studying financial markets and other economic series have become interested in the topic of chaotic dynamics. The possibility of chaos in financial markets opens important questions for both economic theorists as well as financial market participants. This paper will clarify the empirical evidence for chaos in financial markets and macroeconomic series. It will also compare these two concepts from a financial market perspective contrasting the objectives of the practitioner with those of economic researchers. Finally, the paper will speculate on the impact of chaos and nonlinear modeling on future economic research.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Clive W. Granger & Timo Terasvirta & Heather M. Anderson, 1993. "Modeling Nonlinearity over the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 311-326 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blake LeBaron, "undated".
"Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange,"
_007, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- LeBaron, B., 1991. "Technical Trading Rules and Regime Shifts in Foreign Exchange," Working papers 9118, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Steven C. Blank, 1991. "“Chaos” in futures markets? A nonlinear dynamical analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 711-728, December.
- Ramsey, James B & Sayers, Chera L & Rothman, Philip, 1990. "The Statistical Properties of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(4), pages 991-1020, November.
- Ramsey, J.B. & Sayers, C.L. & Rothman, P., 1988. "The Statistical Properties Of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic Applications," Papers 15, Houston - Department of Economics.
- William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," Macroeconomics 0503017, EconWPA.
- William Barnett, 2005. "Monetary Aggregation," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200510, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2005.
- Lee, Tae-Hwy & White, Halbert & Granger, Clive W. J., 1993. "Testing for neglected nonlinearity in time series models : A comparison of neural network methods and alternative tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 269-290, April.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "REGWHITENNTEST: RATS procedure to perform White neural network test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00183, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "REGRESET: RATS procedure to perform Ramsey RESET test on regression," Statistical Software Components RTS00181, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Blake LeBaron, "undated". "The Joint Dynamics and Stability of Stock Prices and Volume," Working papers _004, University of Wisconsin - Madison.
- Frank, Murray & Gencay, Ramazan & Stengos, Thanasis, 1988. "International chaos?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1569-1584, October.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-1764, December.
- Brock, W. & Lakonishok, J. & Lebaron, B., 1991. "Simple Technical Trading Rules And The Stochastic Properties Of Stock Returns," Working papers 90-22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.