IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations


  • Fabio Busetti

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Giuseppe Ferrero

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Andrea Gerali

    () (Banca d'Italia)

  • Alberto Locarno

    () (Banca d'Italia)


A prolonged period of low inflation, particularly in a situation of monetary policy rates near the zero lower bound, can heighten the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring from the central bank objective. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of a sequence of deflationary shocks, such as those that hit the euro area in 2013-14, on expected/realized inflation and output. To do so we consider a simple New Keynesian model where agents, rather than being endowed with rational expectations, have incomplete information about the working of the economy and form expectations through an adaptive learning process (in the sense that they behave like econometricians, using regressions to anticipate the future value of the variables of interest). The model is simulated with euro area data over the period 2014-16 under the assumption both of rational expectations and of learning. The main findings are the followings: (i) under learning, price dynamics in 2015-16 is on average 0.6 percentage points lower than in the case of fully rational agents, as inflation expectations are strongly affected by the repeated deflationary shocks; (ii) the learning process implies a (data-driven) de-anchoring of inflation expectations from the central bank target, which would be perceived by economic agents to fall to 0.8% at the end of 2016; (iii) output expectations would also be lower in the case of learning, resulting in a slower recovery of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Busetti & Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno, 2014. "Deflationary shocks and de-anchoring of inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 252, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_252_14

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Frydman, Roman, 1982. "Towards an Understanding of Market Processes: Individual Expectations, Learning, and Convergence to Rational Expectations Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 652-668, September.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Convergence of Least-Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1306-1322, December.
    4. García, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
    5. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    6. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
    8. George Evans, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-1233.
    9. James Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2007. "Determinacy, Learnability, and Monetary Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1177-1212, August.
    10. Bray, Margaret, 1982. "Learning, estimation, and the stability of rational expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 318-339, April.
    11. Ferrero, Giuseppe, 2007. "Monetary policy, learning and the speed of convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3006-3041, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    2. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    3. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    4. Fabio Panetta, 2016. "Central banking in the XXI century: never say never," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1626, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item


    expected inflation; incomplete information; learning;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_252_14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.