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Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model

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  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Pandiella, Alberto González
  • Hall, Stephen
  • Willman, Alpo

Abstract

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume that agents know the deep parameters of their own optimising frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterisation of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modelled as stationary ARMA(p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative misspecified MSVs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:808-825
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & Mourinho Félix, Ricardo & Marchiori, Luca & Grech, Owen & Albani, Maria & Lalouette, Laure & Kulikov, Dmitry & Papadopoulou, Niki & Sideris, Dimitris & Irac, Delphine & Gordo Mora, , 2015. "Public debt, population ageing and medium-term growth," Occasional Paper Series 165, European Central Bank.
    2. Willman, Alpo & Dieppe, Alistair & Baumann, Ursel & González Pandiella, Alberto, 2014. "Model of the United States economy with learning MUSEL," Working Paper Series 1745, European Central Bank.
    3. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Katrin Forster van Aerssen, 2016. "External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro-Area Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 269-291, December.
    4. Marek Jarociński & Bartosz Maćkowiak, 2014. "Choosing variables in macroeconomic modelling," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 5-8.
    5. Anderton, Robert & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jarvis, Valerie & Aranki, Ted & Rusinova, Desislava & Labhard, Vincent & Jacquinot, Pascal & Dieppe, Alistair & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
    6. Bletzinger, Tilman & Lalik, Magdalena, 2017. "The impact of constrained monetary policy on fiscal multipliers on output and inflation," Working Paper Series 2019, European Central Bank.
    7. Kalin Nikolov & Alexander Popov, 2014. "The sovereign-bank nexus," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 2-4.
    8. Vetlov, Igor & Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Lalik, Magdalena, 2017. "Fiscal spillovers in the euro area a model-based analysis," Working Paper Series 2040, European Central Bank.
    9. repec:ecb:ecbops:2014165 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca' Zorzi, 2014. "External and macroeconomic adjustment in Spain and Germany," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 20, pages 9-12.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectation; Bounded rationality; Learning; Imperfect information; Heterogeneity; Macro modelling; Open-economy macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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