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Potential output from a euro area perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Anderton, Robert
  • Aranki, Ted
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Elding, Catherine
  • Haroutunian, Stephan
  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Jarvis, Valerie
  • Labhard, Vincent
  • Rusinova, Desislava
  • Szörfi, Béla

Abstract

This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future. JEL Classification: C5, E6, C62

Suggested Citation

  • Anderton, Robert & Aranki, Ted & Dieppe, Alistair & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jacquinot, Pascal & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Rusinova, Desislava & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2014156
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    File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop156.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    4. Gábor Kátay & Benedek Nobilis, 2009. "Driving Forces Behind Changes in the Aggregate Labour Force Participation in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2009/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    6. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Ferreiro & Catalina Gálvez & Ana González, 2015. "Fiscal Policies in the European Union during the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 131-155, June.
    2. Bindseil, Ulrich & Domnick, Clemens & Zeuner, Jörg, 2015. "Critique of accommodating central bank policies and the 'expropriation of the saver' - A review," Occasional Paper Series 161, European Central Bank.
    3. Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates," Working Papers 07/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Bas van Aarle, 2016. "Secular Stagnation: Insights from a New Keynesian Model with Hysteresis Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 5797, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. repec:ecb:ecbops:2010161 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9346-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Igor Lebrun, 2015. "Working Paper 04-15 - Potential output growth in Belgium since the crisis - Lower and more uncertain," Working Papers 1504, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; potential output; production function; structural reforms;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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