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Potential output from a euro area perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Anderton, Robert
  • Elding, Catherine
  • Haroutunian, Stephan
  • Jarvis, Valerie
  • Aranki, Ted
  • Rusinova, Desislava
  • Labhard, Vincent
  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Szörfi, Béla

Abstract

This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future. JEL Classification: E23, E25, E32, E37, O49

Suggested Citation

  • Anderton, Robert & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jarvis, Valerie & Aranki, Ted & Rusinova, Desislava & Labhard, Vincent & Jacquinot, Pascal & Dieppe, Alistair & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2014156
    Note: 339014
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop156.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Ferreiro & Catalina Gálvez & Ana González, 2015. "Fiscal Policies in the European Union during the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 131-155, June.
    2. Bindseil, Ulrich & Domnick, Clemens & Zeuner, Jörg, 2015. "Critique of accommodating central bank policies and the 'expropriation of the saver' - A review," Occasional Paper Series 161, European Central Bank.
    3. Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates," Working Papers 07/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    4. Bas van Aarle, 2016. "Secular Stagnation: Insights from a New Keynesian Model with Hysteresis Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 5797, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. repec:ecb:ecbops:2010161 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9346-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christian Gayer & Bertrand Marc, 2018. "A ‘New Modesty’? Level Shifts in Survey Data and the Decreasing Trend of ‘Normal’ Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 083, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Igor Lebrun, 2015. "Working Paper 04-15 - Potential output growth in Belgium since the crisis - Lower and more uncertain," Working Papers 1504, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    9. repec:eee:quaeco:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:9-21 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gap; potential output; production function; structural reforms;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

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