IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/2014156.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Potential output from a euro area perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Anderton, Robert
  • Elding, Catherine
  • Haroutunian, Stephan
  • Jarvis, Valerie
  • Aranki, Ted
  • Rusinova, Desislava
  • Labhard, Vincent
  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • Szörfi, Béla

Abstract

This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future. JEL Classification: E23, E25, E32, E37, O49

Suggested Citation

  • Anderton, Robert & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jarvis, Valerie & Aranki, Ted & Rusinova, Desislava & Labhard, Vincent & Jacquinot, Pascal & Dieppe, Alistair & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2014156
    Note: 339014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecbop156.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christophe Cahn & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2010. "Potential output growth in several industrialised countries a comparison," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 139-165, August.
    2. Stephen Millard & Anamaria Nicolae, 2014. "The effect of the financial crisis on TFP growth: a general equilibrium approach," Bank of England working papers 502, Bank of England.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    5. Gábor Kátay & Benedek Nobilis, 2009. "Driving Forces Behind Changes in the Aggregate Labour Force Participation in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2009/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    6. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    10. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 2000. "What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-154, April.
    11. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    13. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    14. Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    15. Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2010. "The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 470-487, September.
    16. Dieppe, Alistair & Pandiella, Alberto González & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 808-825.
    17. Willman, Alpo, 2002. "Euro area production function and potential output: a supply side system approach," Working Paper Series 153, European Central Bank.
    18. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. repec:rnp:ecopol:09111 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. David Sondermann, 2014. "Productivity in the euro area: any evidence of convergence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 999-1027, November.
    21. Christian Gianella & Isabell Koske & Elena Rusticelli & Olivier Chatal, 2008. "What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 649, OECD Publishing.
    22. Nicholas Oulton & Maria Sebastia-Barriel, 2013. "Long and short-term effects of the financial crisis on labour productivity, capital and output," Bank of England working papers 470, Bank of England.
    23. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "The Normalized Ces Production Function: Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 769-799, December.
    24. Musso, Alberto & Westermann, Thomas, 2005. "Assessing potential output growth in the euro area - a growth accounting perspective, January 2005," Occasional Paper Series 22, European Central Bank.
    25. Andrew Benito & Katharine Neiss & Simon Price & Lukasz Rachel, 2010. "The impact of the financial crisis on supply," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 50(2), pages 104-114.
    26. repec:bla:jecsur:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:119-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Nicholas Oulton & María Sebastiá-Barriel, 2013. "Long and Short-Term Effects of the Financial Crisis on Labour Productivity, Capital and Output," CEP Discussion Papers dp1185, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fontanari, Claudia & Palumbo, Antonella & Salvatori, Chiara, 2020. "Potential Output in Theory and Practice: A Revision and Update of Okun's Original Method," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 247-266.
    2. Jana Kremer & Jan Kuckuck & Karsten Wendorff, 2022. "Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse reformieren: Revisionen erst zeitverzögert einrechnen [Reforming Cyclical Adjustment in the Debt Brake: Respond to Revised Assessments with a Delay]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 830-833, November.
    3. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy [Определение Разрыва Выпуска Для Российской Экономики]," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    4. Bindseil, Ulrich & Domnick, Clemens & Zeuner, Jörg, 2015. "Critique of accommodating central bank policies and the 'expropriation of the saver' - A review," Occasional Paper Series 161, European Central Bank.
    5. Canale, Rosaria Rita & De Simone, Elina & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Financial markets and fiscal discipline in the Eurozone," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 490-499.
    6. Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates," Working Papers 07/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    7. Gabor Katay & Lisa Kerdelhué & Matthieu Lequien, 2020. "Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2020-11, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    8. Bas van Aarle & Bas Van Aarle, 2016. "Secular Stagnation: Insights from a New Keynesian Model with Hysteresis Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 5797, CESifo.
    9. Rosaria Rita Canale & Giorgio Liotti, 2022. "Absolute Poverty and Sound Public Finance in the Eurozone," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 327-344, June.
    10. Jesús Ferreiro & Catalina Gálvez & Ana González, 2015. "Fiscal Policies in the European Union during the Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 131-155, June.
    11. repec:ecb:ecbops:2010161 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    13. Błażej, Mirosław & Górajski, Mariusz & Ulrichs, Magdalena, 2025. "Microdata-based output gap estimation using business tendency surveys," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Susanne Maidorn, 2018. "Is there a trade-off between procyclicality and revisions in EC trend TFP estimations?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 59-82, February.
    15. Davide Fantino & Sara Formai & Alessandro Mistretta, 2021. "Firm characteristics and potential output: a growth accounting approach," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 616, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Christian Gayer & Bertrand Marc, 2018. "A ‘New Modesty’? Level Shifts in Survey Data and the Decreasing Trend of ‘Normal’ Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 083, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Igor Lebrun, 2015. "Working Paper 04-15 - Potential output growth in Belgium since the crisis - Lower and more uncertain," Working Papers 1504, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    18. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    19. Jung, Alexander, 2018. "Does McCallum’s rule outperform Taylor’s rule during the financial crisis?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 9-21.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "What Can the Data Tell Us about the Equilibrium Real Interest Rate?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 181-209, June.
    3. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Rodrigo Fuentes & Fabián Gredig & Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Estimating the Output Gap for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 455, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Gianluca Benigno & Andrew Foerster & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci, 2025. "Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-47, January.
    9. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2021. "Finance and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-107.
    10. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    11. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    12. Matthew Jaremski & David C. Wheelock, 2020. "Banking on the Boom, Tripped by the Bust: Banks and the World War I Agricultural Price Shock," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1719-1754, October.
    13. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    14. Matthieu Lemoine & Gian Luigi Mazzi & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Frédéric Reynes, 2010. "A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zo," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 29-53.
    15. Val鲩e Chouard & Daniel Fuentes Castro & Delphine Irac & Matthieu Lemoine, 2014. "Assessing the losses in euro area potential productivity due to the financial crisis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(23), pages 2711-2720, August.
    16. Mikael Juselius & Mathias Drehmann, 2015. "Leverage dynamics and the real burden of debt," BIS Working Papers 501, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/13633 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Sofiane Aboura & Emmanuel Lépinette-Denis, 2014. "An Alternative Model to Basel Regulation," Post-Print hal-01526063, HAL.
    19. Aaron G. Grech, "undated". "Investigating potential output using the Hodrick-Prescott filter: an application for Malta," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2014, Central Bank of Malta.
    20. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2018. "What Anchors for the Natural Rate of Interest?," PIER Discussion Papers 98, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    21. Widiantoro, Dimas Mukhlas, 2022. "Countercyclical capital buffer: building the resilience or taming the rapid financial cycle?," MPRA Paper 113507, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O49 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2014156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.