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Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse reformieren: Revisionen erst zeitverzögert einrechnen
[Reforming Cyclical Adjustment in the Debt Brake: Respond to Revised Assessments with a Delay]

Author

Listed:
  • Jana Kremer

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Jan Kuckuck

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Karsten Wendorff

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

In this article, we point out requirements for potential output estimates used for cyclical adjustment in the German debt brake. Further, we propose supplementing the cyclical component in the debt break with an error term — regardless of the specific potential output estimation approach. The error term provides fiscal policy more time to adjust to potential output revisions and tax revenue forecast errors. Simulations based on past data show that the error term reduces erratic budgetary adjustments and strengthens automatic stabilisers.

Suggested Citation

  • Jana Kremer & Jan Kuckuck & Karsten Wendorff, 2022. "Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse reformieren: Revisionen erst zeitverzögert einrechnen [Reforming Cyclical Adjustment in the Debt Brake: Respond to Revised Assessments with a Delay]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 830-833, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:wirtsc:v:102:y:2022:i:11:d:10.1007_s10273-022-3324-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10273-022-3324-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderton, Robert & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jarvis, Valerie & Aranki, Ted & Rusinova, Desislava & Labhard, Vincent & Jacquinot, Pascal & Dieppe, Alistair & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
    2. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E62; H61; H68;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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