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Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany

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  • Thiess Buettner
  • Bjoern Kauder

Abstract

This paper explores whether and how political biases arise in an institutional setting where revenue forecasting is delegated to a body that includes experts from institutions neither part of nor controlled by the government. The empirical analysis focuses on the performance of German federal tax revenue forecasts, in the preparation of which the advice of external experts has a long tradition as an institutional safeguard. While, on average, revenue forecasts turn out to be unbiased, the results show that the government exerts an influence. In particular, optimism/pessimism in the government’s GDP forecast helps to explain why the revenue forecast turns out too optimistic/pessimistic. In addition, governmental estimates of the revenue effects of tax-law changes are found to contribute to forecast errors. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

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  • Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:164:y:2015:i:3:p:287-307
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-015-0279-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
    2. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    3. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Todtenhaupt, Maximilian, 2022. "Incumbency and expectations of fiscal rule compliance: Evidence from surveys of German policy makers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Jana Kremer & Jan Kuckuck & Karsten Wendorff, 2022. "Konjunkturbereinigung in der Schuldenbremse reformieren: Revisionen erst zeitverzögert einrechnen [Reforming Cyclical Adjustment in the Debt Brake: Respond to Revised Assessments with a Delay]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 830-833, November.
    5. Niklas Potrafke & Marina Riem & Christoph Schinke, 2016. "Debt Brakes in the German States: Governments’ Rhetoric and Actions," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 17(2), pages 253-275, May.
    6. Frank Bohn, 2019. "Political budget cycles, incumbency advantage, and propaganda," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 43-70, March.
    7. Ademmer Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe Jens, 2022. "The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 242(2), pages 171-190, April.
    8. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
    9. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    10. Lehmann Robert & Wollmershäuser Timo, 2020. "The macroeconomic projections of the German government: A comparison to an independent forecasting institution," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 235-270, June.
    11. Carabotta, Laura & Paluzie, Elisenda & Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 694-706.
    12. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2020. "2020 annual report of the European Fiscal Board," Annual reports 2020, European Fiscal Board.
    13. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Fabian Ruthardt & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Do State Goverments Embellish Key Fiscal Figures?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(06), pages 36-40, March.
    14. Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax revenues; Forecasting; Rational prediction ; External experts; Consensus forecast; Fiscal councils ; Budgeting; H68; E32; E62;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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