Revenue Forecasting Practices: Differences across Countries and Consequences for Forecasting Performance
This paper reviews the practice and performance of revenue forecasting in selected OECD countries. While the mean forecast errors are small in most countries, the precision of the forecasts measured by the standard deviation of the forecast error differs substantially across countries. Based on a comparison of forecasting practices we show that these differences can be attributed to a large part to differences in the timing of the forecasts and in the tax structure. In addition, we find some evidence that differences in methods and institutions also matter for the forecasting precision. In particular, we find that the use of macroeconomic models as well as the independence of revenue forecasting are associated with a lower standard deviation of the forecast error.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
Phone: (+44) 020 7291 4800
Fax: (+44) 020 7323 4780
Web page: http://www.ifs.org.uk
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: The Institute for Fiscal Studies 7 Ridgmount Street LONDON WC1E 7AE|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Auerbach, Alan J., 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(4), pages 765-782, December.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008.
"Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,"
Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, 09.
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 0843, European Central Bank.
- Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- repec:ntj:journl:v:52:y:1999:i:n._4:p:765-82 is not listed on IDEAS
- Feenberg, D.R. & Gentry, W. & Gilroy, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1988.
"Testing The Rationality Of State Revenue Forecasts,"
16, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Discussion Paper.
- Feenberg, Daniel R, et al, 1989. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 300-308, May.
- Daniel R. Feenberg & William Gentry & David Gilroy & Harvey S. Rosen, 1988. "Testing the Rationality of State Revenue Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 2628, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Auerbach, Alan Jeffrey, 1999. "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts," Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics, Working Paper Series qt8h845262, Berkeley Olin Program in Law & Economics.
- Richard Boylan, 2008. "Political distortions in state forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 411-427, September.
- Tim Pike & David Savage, 1998. "Forecasting the public finances in the Treasury," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 49-62, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ifs:fistud:v:31:y:2010:i:3:p:313-340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emma Hyman)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.