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Dynamic Revenue Estimation

  • Alan J. Auerbach

This paper considers the question of adopting 'dynamic' revenue estimation methods, which would incorporate the predicted macroeconomic effects of policies. It describes the current revenue estimation process and how these estimates are used in the formation of policy. It then evaluates this process as an exercise in forecasting, considering not only its methodology but also its performance. This evaluation illustrates some of the difficulties that would accompany attempts to use dynamic methods. Finally, the paper relates the choice among different revenue estimation procedures to the political process and the use to which the revenue estimates are put.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.10.1.141
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 141-157

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:1:p:141-57
Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.1.141
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  1. Gerald E. Auten & Joseph J. Cordes, 1991. "Policy Watch: Cutting Capital Gains Taxes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 181-192, Winter.
  2. Martin Feldstein, 1993. "The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the1986 Tax Reform Act," NBER Working Papers 4496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mark Hooker & Michael Knetter, 1994. "Unemployment Effects of Military Spending: Evidence from a Panel of States," NBER Working Papers 4889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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