Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?
We estimate the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Since the adoption of the Stability Pact, Eurozone governments have manipulated forecasts before elections. The political orientation and the institutional design of governments also affects the quality of forecasts.
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- Marco Buti & Paul van den Noord, 2004. "Fiscal policy in EMU: Rules, discretion and political incentives," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 206, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004.
"Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 0307, European Central Bank.
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