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Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?

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  1. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Bruno S. Frey, 2007. "Evaluierungen, Evaluierungen … Evaluitis," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 207-220, August.
  3. Lorenti, A.Nicolás & Mora-Ruano, Rubén & Fernández Romero, Daniel & Angoitia Grijalba, Miguel, 2025. "Fiscal Forecast Errors in the Eurozone: The Influence of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) and Monetary Policy," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 254(3), pages 119-156, September.
  4. Bruck, Tilman & Zwiener, Rudolf, 2006. "Fiscal policy rules for stabilisation and growth: A simulation analysis of deficit and expenditure targets in a monetary union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 357-369, May.
  5. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2020. "Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2012. "Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules," NBER Working Papers 18283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner & Rene Zamarripa, 2021. "Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?," IMF Working Papers 2021/154, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008. "Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
  9. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2008. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited--Do we really need input prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1093-1109, September.
  10. Fabian Gunzinger & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "It's Politics, Stupid! Political Constraints Determined Governments' Reactions to the Great Recession," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 584-603, November.
  11. Juergen von Hagen, 2010. "The Sustainability of Public Finanaces and Fiscal Policy Coordination in the EMU," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 412, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(3), pages 407-430, September.
  13. Giuliodori, Massimo & Beetsma, Roel, 2008. "On the relationship between fiscal plans in the European Union: An empirical analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 221-242, June.
  14. Thiess Buettner & Bjoern Kauder, 2015. "Political biases despite external expert participation? An empirical analysis of tax revenue forecasts in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 287-307, September.
  15. Niels Gilbert & Jasper de Jong, 2014. "Does the Stability and Growth Pact induce a bias in the EC's fiscal forecasts," DNB Working Papers 451, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  16. Frank Bohn, 2018. "Political cycles: Beyond rational expectations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(10), pages 1-23, October.
  17. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Walschot, Mark & Wierts, Peter, 2013. "Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-138.
  18. Peters Heiko & Ried Stefan & Schwarz Peter, 2011. "Krisenreaktion und Krisenprävention im Euro-Raum: Wandel zum Besseren? / Crisis Mangement and Prevention for the Eurozone: A Change for the Better?," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 62(1), pages 3-28, January.
  19. Luisa Giuriato & Alessandra Cepparulo & Matteo Barberi, 2016. "Fiscal forecasts and political systems: a legislative budgeting perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 1-22, July.
  20. Guido Baldi, 2016. "Fiscal policy rules, budget deficits, and forecasting biases," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 185-194, April.
  21. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2012. "The Fiscal Forecasting Track Record of the European Commission and Portugal," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/37, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  22. Jakub Rybacki, 2019. "Fiscal Deficit Forecasts by International Institutions: Evidence for a Double Standard?," KAE Working Papers 2019-044, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
  23. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Government debt forecast errors and the net expenditure rule in EU countries: Undue optimism at a cost," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 1113-1131.
  24. António Afonso & Rui Carvalho, 2014. "Revenue Forecast Errors in the European Union," Working Papers Department of Economics 2014/02, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  25. Carabotta, Laura & Paluzie, Elisenda & Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 694-706.
  26. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
  27. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Fang, Xiangming & Kim, Young & Lledó, Victor & Mbaye, Samba & Zhang, Xiaoxiao, 2019. "Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 53-69.
  28. Ivo Bischoff & Wolfgang Gohout, 2010. "The political economy of tax projections," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(2), pages 133-150, April.
  29. David Cronin & Niall McInerney, 2024. "Institutional Quality and Official Budgetary Forecast Performance in EU Member States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 80(2), pages 165-192.
  30. Vigenina, Denotes & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2004. "The individual micro-lending contract: is it a better design than joint-liability?: Evidence from Georgia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 155-176, June.
  31. Chakraborty, Lekha & Jha, Ajay Narayan & Yadav, Jitesh & Kaur, Amandeep, 2023. "Fiscal Behaviour and Climate Change Commitments in India: Analysing the Budget Credibility," Working Papers 23/396, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  32. Israel García, 2023. "Budget Forecast Errors in Spanish Municipalities: The Role of Transparency," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202327, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  33. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
  34. Rybacki, Jakub, 2020. "Polish GDP Forecast Errors: A Tale of Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 98952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Brinja Meiseberg & Thomas Ehrmann & Aloys Prinz, 2017. "“Anything worth winning is worth cheating for”? Determinants of cheating behavior among business and theology students," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(8), pages 985-1016, November.
  36. Jeffrey Frankel & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the eurozone," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(2), pages 247-272, June.
  37. Rossana Merola & Javier J. Pérez, 2012. "Fiscal forecast errors: governments vs independent agencies?," Working Papers 1233, Banco de España.
  38. Niels D. Gilbert & Jasper F.M. Jong, 2017. "Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth Pact," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-32, January.
  39. Bruno S. Frey & Margit Osterloh, 2006. "Evaluations: Hidden Costs, Questionable Benefits, and Superior Alternatives," IEW - Working Papers 302, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  40. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Wierts, Peter, 2009. "Budgeting versus implementing fiscal policy in the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 7285, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Chakraborty, Lekha & Chakraborty, Pinaki & Shrestha, Ruzel, 2019. "Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments: Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India," Working Papers 19/280, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
  42. Zidong An & Joao Tovar Jalles, 2020. "On the performance of US fiscal forecasts: government vs. private information," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(2), pages 367-391, June.
  43. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
  44. Roel Beetsma & Benjamin Bluhm & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2011. "From First-Release to Ex-Post Fiscal Data: Exploring the Sources of Revision Errors in the EU," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-080/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  45. Frank Bohn & Francisco José Veiga, 2019. "Political Budget Forecast cycles," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2019-13-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
  46. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  47. Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
  48. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
  49. Lekha Chakraborty & Pinaki Chakraborty & Ruzel Shrestha, 2020. "Budget Credibility of Subnational Governments: Analyzing the Fiscal Forecasting Errors of 28 States in India," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_964, Levy Economics Institute.
  50. Baldi, Guido, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rules, Budget Deficits, and Forecasting Biases," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 185-194.
  51. Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011. "The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
  52. Rybacki Jakub, 2020. "Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 7(54), pages 101-109, January.
  53. Orazem, Peter F, 2017. "An Evaluation of the State of Iowa Revenue Forecasts, 1995 – 2017," ISU General Staff Papers 201712010800001036, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  54. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
  55. Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Evaluitis � Eine Neue Krankheit," IEW - Working Papers 293, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  56. Merola, Rossana & Pérez, Javier J., 2013. "Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 285-299.
  57. Muscatelli, Vito A. & Natale, Piergiovanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2012. "A simple and flexible alternative to Stability and Growth Pact deficit ceilings. Is it at hand?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 14-26.
  58. Malik Muhammad & Mumtaz Anwar Chaudhry & Shabib Haider Syed & Mahwish Saeed, 2023. "Instability of government revenues and expenditures: implications for budget deficit in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 4971-4983, December.
  59. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
  60. Olorunfemi Yasiru ALIMI & Olumuyiwa Ganiyu YINUSA & Ishola Rufus AKINTOYE & Olalekan Bashir AWORINDE, 2015. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes in Nigeria," The Journal of Accounting and Management, Danubius University of Galati, issue 3, pages 85-94, December.
  61. Jiří Šindelář, 2022. "The accuracy of state budget planning: case of the Czech Republic [Úspěšnost plánování státního rozpočtu ČR]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(1), pages 35-58.
  62. Beate Jochimsen & Robert Lehmann, 2017. "On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 211-230, March.
  63. Jef Vuchelen & Jesse De Wit, 2008. "An Evaluation of the OECD Cyclically-Adjusted Primary Government Balance Forecasts," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 51(4), pages 459-479.
  64. Kozhan, Roman, 2006. "Multiple Priors And No-Transaction Region," Working Paper Series 2006,4, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  65. Patrícia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts and Slippages: The Role of the SGP and Domestic Fiscal Frameworks," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 226-253, June.
  66. Xisco Oliver Rullán & Joan Rosselló Villalonga, 2018. "The Determinants of Regional Budget Forecast Errors in Federal Economies: Spain 1995-2013," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 226(3), pages 85-121, September.
  67. Bohn, Frank & Veiga, Francisco José, 2021. "Political forecast cycles," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  68. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
  69. Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos de Deus & Helder Ferreira de Mendonça, 2015. "Empirical evidence on fiscal forecasting in Eurozone countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(5), pages 838-860, October.
  70. Jakub Rybacki, 2021. "Polish GDP forecast errors: a tale of inefficiency," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(2), pages 123-142.
  71. repec:uii:journl:v:10:y:2018:i:2:p:137-147 is not listed on IDEAS
  72. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Political orientation of government and stock market returns," MPRA Paper 307, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
  73. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  74. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Richard Jong-A-Pin & Jakob de Haan, 2012. "Using Real-Time Data to Test for Political Budget Cycles," KOF Working papers 12-313, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  75. Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Evaluitis ? Eine neue Krankheit," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-18, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  76. Jürgen von Hagen, 2011. "The Sustainability of Public Finances in the EMU," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 9(3), pages 03-10, October.
  77. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
  78. Patricia Martins & Leonida Correia, 2013. "The determinants of macroeconomic forecasts and the Stability and Growth Pact," Working Papers Department of Economics 2013/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  79. Jürgen Hagen, 2010. "Sticking to fiscal plans: the role of institutions," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 487-503, September.
  80. Nada Azmy ElBerry & Stijn Goeminne, 2021. "Fiscal transparency, fiscal forecasting and budget credibility in developing countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 144-161, January.
  81. repec:dgr:rugsom:12010-eef is not listed on IDEAS
  82. Boukari, Mamadou & Veiga, Francisco José, 2018. "Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1030-1045.
  83. António Afonso & Jorge Silva, 2015. "The track record of fiscal forecasting in the EU," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1318-1329.
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