Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands
Using real-time data from the annual budget over the period 1958-2009, we explore the planning and realization of fiscal policy in the Netherlands . Our key findings are the following. First, planned surpluses are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during the first half of the sample and too pessimistic during the second half of the sample. The latter is the result of cautious real-time revenue estimates by the Dutch Ministry of Finance during this period. Second, real growth projections by the official Dutch forecasting agency are unbiased. This contrasts with the experience of the EU as a whole where biased growth projections represent an important source of fiscal slippage. Third, general economic conditions and the state of the public finances are important determinants of both fiscal plans and their implementation. Fourth, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors , whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. In particular, the most recent regime of the "trendbased budget policy" has worked well for fiscal discipline in the Netherlands
|Date of creation:||Aug 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam|
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
- Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011.
"The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
- Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
- Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 325-345.
- Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 207-261, 04.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2009. "Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 753-804, October.
- Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008. "Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2006. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 3-15, 02.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Stephan, Andreas & Brück, Tilman, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2005,5, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
- Lane, Philip R., 2003. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
- Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, 2007. "Fiscal Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 2007-10, CEPII research center.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2008. "Fiscal policy in real time," Working Paper Series 919, European Central Bank.
- Álvaro M. Pina, 2009. "Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes," Working Papers w200906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Francisco Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez‐Vives, 2013. "Fiscal Data Revisions in Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 1187-1209, 09.
- Francisco de Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez Vives, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Working Papers 1106, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- de Castro Fernández, Francisco & Pérez, Javier J. & Rodríguez-Vives, Marta, 2011. "Fiscal data revisions in Europe," Working Paper Series 1342, European Central Bank.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- John Lewis, 2013. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3347-3359, August.
- John Lewis, 2009. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: Cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," DNB Working Papers 214, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," MPRA Paper 4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2008. "The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2007. "The Stability and Growth Pact, Fiscal Policy Institutions, and Stabilization in Europe," GEMF Working Papers 2007-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
- Xavier Debrun & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions; Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2008. "The cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area. Why do results of empirical research differ so strongly?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 654, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.