Fifty Years of Fiscal Planning and Implementation in the Netherlands
Using real-time data from the annual budget over the period 1958-2009, we explore the planning and realization of fiscal policy in the Netherlands . Our key findings are the following. First, planned surpluses are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during the first half of the sample and too pessimistic during the second half of the sample. The latter is the result of cautious real-time revenue estimates by the Dutch Ministry of Finance during this period. Second, real growth projections by the official Dutch forecasting agency are unbiased. This contrasts with the experience of the EU as a whole where biased growth projections represent an important source of fiscal slippage. Third, general economic conditions and the state of the public finances are important determinants of both fiscal plans and their implementation. Fourth, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors , whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. In particular, the most recent regime of the "trendbased budget policy" has worked well for fiscal discipline in the Netherlands
|Date of creation:||Aug 2010|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Postbus 98, 1000 AB Amsterdam|
Web page: http://www.dnb.nl/en/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2005.
"Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with Their Budget Deficit Forecasts?,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
508, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Tilman Brück & Andreas Stephan, 2006. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 3-15, 02.
- Stephan, Andreas & Brück, Tilman, 2005. "Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2005,5, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
- Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003.
"Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jacopo Cimadomo, 2012.
"Fiscal Policy in Real Time,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(2), pages 440-465, 06.
- Pina, Álvaro M. & Venes, Nuno M., 2011.
"The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 534-546, September.
- Álvaro Pina & Nuno Venes, 2007. "The Political Economy of EDP Fiscal Forecasts: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- Lane, Philip R., 2003.
"The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: evidence from the OECD,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 87(12), pages 2661-2675, December.
- Philip R. Lane, 2002. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from the OECD," Trinity Economics Papers 20022, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Frits Bos, 2007. "The Dutch fiscal framework; history, current practice and the role of the CPB," CPB Document 150, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 207-261, 04.
- Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010.
"Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 419-441, July.
- Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2008. "Fiscal Adjustment to Cyclical Developments in the OECD: An Empirical Analysis Based on Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2007.
"The Stability and Growth Pact, Fiscal Policy Institutions, and Stabilization in Europe,"
GEMF Working Papers
2007-07, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2008. "The stability and growth pact, fiscal policy institutions and stabilization in Europe," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 189-207, July.
- John Lewis, 2013.
"Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3347-3359, August.
- John Lewis, 2009. "Fiscal policy in Central and Eastern Europe with real time data: Cyclicality, inertia and the role of EU accession," DNB Working Papers 214, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Torsten Persson & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(2), pages 325-345.
- Xavier Debrun & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "The Discipline-Enhancing Role of Fiscal Institutions; Theory and Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 07/171, .
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
- Álvaro M. Pina, 2009. "Elusive Counter-Cyclicality and Deliberate Opportunism? Fiscal Policy from Plans to Final Outcomes," Working Papers w200906, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Francisco de Castro & Javier J. Pérez & Marta Rodríguez Vives, 2011.
"Fiscal data revisions in Europe,"
1106, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2006.
"Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts,"
CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 491-534, 07.
- Lars Jonung & Martin Larch, 2004. "Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 210, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004.
"Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data,"
4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Peter Wierts, 2009. "Planning to cheat: EU fiscal policy in real time," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 24, pages 753-804, October.
- Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
- Roberto Golinelli & Sandro Momigliano, 2008. "The cyclical response of fiscal policies in the euro area. Why do results of empirical research differ so strongly?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 654, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rob Vet)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.