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Political Orientation of Government and Stock Market Returns

  • Bialkowski, Jedrzej
  • Gottschalk, Katrin
  • Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr

Prior research documented that U.S. stock prices tend to grow faster during Democratic administrations than during Republican administrations. This letter examines whether stock returns in other countries also depend on the political orientation of the incumbents. An analysis of 24 stock markets and 173 different governments reveals that there are no statistically significant differences in returns between left-wing and right-wing executives. Consequently, international investment strategies based on the political orientation of countries' leadership are likely to be futile.

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Paper provided by European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe in its series Working Paper Series with number 2006,9.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvgra:20069
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  1. Bohl, Martin T. & Gottschalk, Katrin & Pál, Rozália, 2006. "Institutional investors and stock market efficiency: The case of the January anomaly," MPRA Paper 677, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
  2. Michael Fritsch & Andreas Stephan, 2004. "What Causes Cross-Industry Differences of Technical Efficiency?: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 457, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  3. Gebka, Bartosz, 2006. "Leaders and Laggards: International Evidence on Spillovers in Returns, Variance, and Trading Volume," Working Paper Series 2006,1, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  4. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006.
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  10. Michael Fritsch & Andreas Stephan, 2004. "The Distribution and Heterogeneity of Technical Efficiency within Industries: An Empirical Assessment," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 453, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Kurt Geppert & Michael Happich & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Regional Disparities in the European Union: Convergence and Agglomeration," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 525, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  12. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2008. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited--Do we really need input prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1093-1109, September.
  13. Bohl, Martin T. & Gottschalk, Katrin, 2006. "International evidence on the Democrat premium and the presidential cycle effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 107-120, August.
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  16. Gebka, Bartosz & Serwa, Dobromil, 2006. "Are financial spillovers stable across regimes?: Evidence from the 1997 Asian crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 301-317, October.
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  19. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Serwa, Dobromil, 2006. "Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turbulent periods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 397-412, July.
  20. Roubini, Nouriel & Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Scholarly Articles 4553025, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  21. Bohl, M. T. & Havrylchyk, O. & Schiereck, D., 2006. "Foreign Acquisitions and Industry Wealth Effects of Privatisation: Evidence from the Polish Banking Industry," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 60394, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
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